The Fed Is The New Waffle Home

I had no concept the Fed may very well be such professional wafflers. However, as every month passes, it is changing into clearer. The general inventory market pattern, regardless of all of the back-and-forth, yo-yo Fed choices over the previous 6 months, stays to the upside. Want proof? Take a look at this weekly S&P 500 chart for the previous 12 months:

Now, in case you weren’t conscious of any information, would you suppose any in another way about this pullback to the 20-week EMA than prior assessments to the identical stage? There was a quantity spike, however bear in mind it was December month-to-month choices expiration week. Quad-witching months (March, June, September, and December) sometimes are accompanied by heavier quantity. The Friday market restoration occurred earlier than any important breakdown on this chart, which I discover bullish. I view the inventory market motion from December twenty first via December thirty first to be the interval the place we usually see a “Santa Claus rally” – extra on that under.

The Fed has made it clear up to now that they have been “data-dependent.” Within the newest FOMC coverage resolution and subsequent press convention, nevertheless, Fed Chief Powell indicated that they’ve minimize the variety of anticipated price cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2, as a result of committee members really feel that core inflation may very well be increased than they beforehand thought again in September, when the primary price minimize was introduced.

Here is an issue I’ve, although. On Thursday, November 14th, the Related Press reported the next:

The Fed acknowledged on this article that inflation remained persistent and above the Fed’s goal 2% stage. That day, Powell prompt that inflation could stay caught considerably above the Fed’s goal stage in coming months. However he reiterated that inflation ought to finally decline. Given these November 14th remarks, if the Fed was involved about inflation remaining elevated, then why not change their tune on 2025 rate of interest cuts on the November 6-7 Fed assembly. In the event that they’re actually “knowledge dependent”, then what knowledge modified from November 14th till the following Fed assembly on December 17-18 to immediate 2025 rate of interest coverage change?

Can I’ve a waffle, please?

Odds of a Santa Claus Rally

Once more, I contemplate the Santa Claus rally to be from December twenty first via December thirty first, so let us take a look at what number of instances this era has truly moved increased:

• S&P 500: 58 of the final 74 years since 1950 (annualized return: +40.50%)
• NASDAQ: 43 of the final 53 years since 1971 (annualized return: +61.80%)
• Russell 2000: 31 of the final 37 years since 1987 (annualized return: +64.57%)

Based mostly upon historical past, the percentages of a Santa Claus rally is 78.4%, 81.1%, and 83.8% on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, respectively. And you may see the annualized return for this era within the parenthesis above. I might say there is a ton of historic efficiency to counsel the percentages that we’ll rally from right here till 12 months finish are fairly sturdy.

Nothing is ever a assure, nevertheless.

Max Ache

For my part, the media is selling the concept that inflation is re-igniting and that the Fed is changing into extra hawkish. I consider final week’s promoting is because of EXACTLY what I talked about with our EarningsBeats.com members throughout our December Max Ache occasion on Tuesday. There was a TON of web in-the-money name premium and the massive Wall Road companies aided their market-making items by telling us how dangerous the Fed’s actions and phrases are for the inventory market. That Wednesday drop saved market makers an absolute FORTUNE. We identified to our members the draw back market threat that existed, due to max ache. A day later, VOILA! It is magic! The loopy afternoon promoting was panicked promoting at its most interesting, with the Volatility Index (VIX) hovering an astounding 74% in 2 hours! On Thursday and Friday, the VIX retreated again into the 18s (from 28) as if nothing ever occurred.

There is a motive why I preach each single month about choices expiration and this was simply one other instance of legalized thievery by the market makers. Let’s give them one other golf clap.

MarketVision 2025

It is virtually time for my 2025 forecast, which might be a giant a part of our Saturday, January 4, 2025, 10:00am ET occasion. This 12 months’s MV occasion, “The 12 months of Diverging Returns”, will function myself and David Keller, President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Analysis. Lots of Dave from StockCharts and in addition from his Market Misbehavior podcast. I am wanting ahead to having Dave be a part of me as we dissect what we consider is more likely to transpire in 2025. For extra data on the occasion and to register, CLICK HERE!

Joyful holidays and I hope to see you there!

Tom