Former President Donald Trump’s election-year message to his supporters is evident and infrequently repeated: If Democrats win the November election, blame voter fraud.
Fraud by mail-in voting. Fraud by noncitizen voting. Fraud by an enormous interstate conspiracy. Fraud orchestrated by the Democratic Occasion.
Trump despatched a fundraising enchantment in August that mentioned his victory wanted to be “TOO BIG TO RIG” by the Democrats.
He works comparable speaking factors into rallies and interviews.
“Now we have to vote and now we have to guarantee that we cease them from dishonest, as a result of they cheat like canines,” Trump mentioned Aug. 3 in Atlanta.
“Look ahead to the voter fraud, as a result of we win with out voter fraud, we win so simply,” he mentioned Sept. 6 to the Fraternal Order of Police.
“Anytime you have got a mail-in poll, there’s going to be huge fraud,” he informed Dr. Phil McGraw on Aug. 27.
Trump vowed “long-term jail sentences” for election “cheaters.” At a Sept. 13 rally in Las Vegas, he mentioned, “Now we have a superb lead, however we have got to watch out as a result of keep in mind, they cheat like hell.”
Trump summarized his issues into one rant in an interview with conservative radio host Wayne Allyn Root: “Now we have a rigged election. Now we have unhealthy borders, now we have very unhealthy elections. Now we have a foul voting system. Now we have mail-in ballots.”
It’s vital for voters to know that his election claims are wildly false, simply as they have been in 2016 and 2020. We needed to assist voters perceive why.
Trump’s claims may discourage voters, together with Republicans, from collaborating within the election. In the event that they suppose their votes gained’t rely on account of Democratic scheming, fraudulent mail-in voting, and noncitizens collaborating illegally, then why ought to they hassle?
“As a Republican, it bothers me when Trump says that we win with out voter fraud,” mentioned Trey Grayson, former Kentucky secretary of state. “On the one hand, it’s actually true. There may be not a variety of voter fraud on this nation, and Republicans win elections on a regular basis. I gained twice; Trump gained the presidency as soon as. However Trump’s continued insistence that voter fraud is why Republicans lose elections has been very dangerous for the social gathering.”
Once we requested Trump’s marketing campaign to supply proof that reveals the one means Trump loses is with voter fraud and that mail-in voting has huge fraud, Republican Nationwide Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly mentioned, “How will you reality examine one thing that hasn’t occurred but?”
If latest elections function a information, falsehoods about voter fraud will intensify as thousands and thousands of Individuals start to forged ballots by mail, at early voting websites, after which on Election Day. However the election system in our nation makes the heist Trump has lengthy described each unlikely and impossibly elaborate.
“We must always name this what it’s: Trump laying the groundwork so he can forged doubt on the 2024 outcomes if he doesn’t win,” mentioned Joanna Lydgate, CEO of the nonpartisan States United Democracy Middle.
Elections are administered by native jurisdictions which have protections in place
Miami-Dade County Supervisor of Elections Christina White, proper, examines signatures on vote-by-mail ballots with Choose Raul Cuervo, left, and Choose Betsy Alvarez-Zane, heart, on Oct. 26, 2020, on the Miami-Dade County Board of Elections. (AP)
The U.S. has a decentralized election system largely administered by native election officers.
States set legal guidelines on election insurance policies corresponding to sending mail ballots or requiring voters to point out a photograph ID. Native election officers deal with the day-to-day duties of operating elections. Their places of work ship ballots to voters, practice volunteers to examine in voters at native precincts, and oversee the machines at voting websites.
Think about Michigan, a battleground state the place elections are administered by about 1,600 county and native officers.
These officers are “Republicans, Democrats and independents — together with 1000’s of ballot staff from each events and each group,” Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson mentioned Sept. 26 as voting by mail started.
To construct a enough Electoral School margin, unhealthy actors must collaborate throughout battleground states in a coordinated however secret means, with tons of of individuals risking felonies for a similar aim.
Pulling this off would require 1000’s of unlawful votes. A database maintained by the conservative Heritage Basis reveals about 1,500 confirmed situations of voter fraud over many years. However throughout that point interval there have been billions of votes.
The net of election safety legal guidelines and practices makes widespread fraud unrealistic.
Election safety begins with voter registration. The Assist America Vote Act of 2002 sometimes requires that individuals who register to vote present an ID, usually a driver’s license. Native election officers, in compliance with federal legislation, full an effort to take away ineligible voters from the rolls corresponding to those that moved not later than 90 days earlier than an election. (Some removals nonetheless happen after that deadline, corresponding to when individuals alert the elections workplace that they’ve moved or {that a} member of the family died.)
However there are extra steps election officers take to guard the election. About two-thirds of states have legal guidelines requiring voters to present ID on the polls.
The remaining 14 states confirm voters’ identities in different methods, corresponding to a signature which is checked in opposition to info on file.
Mail-in voting has safeguards
From left, Carol Hamilton, Cristo Carter and Cynthia Huntley put together ballots Sept. 5, 2024, for mailing to the Mecklenburg County Board of Elections in Charlotte, N.C. (AP)
Trump has unfold many falsehoods about voting by mail, despite the fact that he has typically used it himself as a Florida voter.
Mail-in voting offers extra alternative for fraud than in-person voting, nevertheless it’s nonetheless uncommon.
There are protections in place to forestall individuals from casting a number of ballots.
Take California, which Trump has falsely criticized as sending seven ballots to each voter.
California is considered one of eight states plus Washington, D.C., that ship a poll to all registered, energetic voters.
As soon as a voter submits a mail poll, the system flags that the particular person already voted, in line with the California secretary of state’s workplace. A second poll wouldn’t be counted. Comparable protections are in place for in-person voting.
Politicians, often Republicans, additionally speak about the specter of useless individuals voting in shut elections. On this state of affairs, a relative would fill out a poll within the identify of a useless relative and ship it in, despite the fact that that’s unlawful.
This has occurred, nevertheless it’s not on the scale that might tip an election.
A Marple, Pennsylvania, man who voted for Trump on behalf of his useless mom in 2020 informed the decide: “I used to be remoted final yr in lockdown. I listened to an excessive amount of propaganda and made a silly mistake.”
Federal legislation makes it a criminal offense to vote greater than as soon as in an election for candidates for federal workplace. The penalty is a tremendous of as much as $10,000 or jail as much as 5 years, or each. Many state legal guidelines additionally listing double voting as a felony punishable by fines or jail time.
Within the U.S., 94% of registered voters reside in states which have some model of poll monitoring. That reduces the chance of fraud as a result of particular person voters and election officers can observe the progress of ballots by way of the system, mentioned Paul Gronke, director of Reed School’s Elections and Voting Info Middle.
States that permit poll drop containers usually have legal guidelines that require security measures, corresponding to locks or monitoring. Poll drop containers have been utilized in some locations for many years with out controversy till 2020, when Trump described them, with out proof, as a “voter safety catastrophe.”
Noncitizen voting is against the law and uncommon
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris debate Sept. 10, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP)
One other cornerstone of Trump’s effort to forged doubt on election outcomes entails voting by noncitizens.
Throughout the Sept. 10 presidential debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump mentioned Democrats are attempting to get unlawful immigrants to vote, “and that is why they’re permitting them to return into our nation.” That is Pants on Fireplace.
Solely U.S. residents can vote in federal elections. Immigrants who arrive now cannot vote as a result of the method to get U.S. citizenship takes years.
Noncitizens who vote resist a yr in jail and deportation, mentioned David Becker, government director of the Middle for Election Innovation and Analysis.
Immigrants who’ve usually risked every thing to return to the U.S., whether or not legally or not, don’t wish to threat their presence within the U.S. “for the suitable to forged one poll in an election through which 160 million are going to be forged,” Becker mentioned throughout a Sept. 20 media briefing by the Nationwide Process Power on Election Crises.
There have been situations of noncitizens ending up on the voter rolls, typically by chance when getting a driver’s license. And states have typically erroneously flagged residents as noncitizens.
The Republicans have pointed to some examples of states eradicating noncitizens on the voter rolls as purpose for concern. Ohio officers introduced in August that they’d discovered about 600 noncitizens who registered to vote, together with 138 who seem to have voted with out U.S. citizenship The assertion didn’t say once they voted. There are about 8 million registered voters in Ohio.
Different RNC allegations in lawsuits in opposition to Democratic-led states haven’t but been confirmed in court docket.
The RNC sued Nevada on Sept. 11, alleging that about 4,000 people who used immigration paperwork on the Division of Motor Automobiles forged a poll within the 2020 basic election. However then-Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, a Republican, investigated an analogous allegation after the election and dismissed it. Whereas 1000’s of individuals current immigration paperwork on the DMV, it’s attainable that they later grew to become residents.
The RNC additionally sued North Carolina to implement a state legislation requiring courts to ahead to the state elections board varieties exhibiting when individuals point out they will’t serve on juries as a result of they’re noncitizens.
The North Carolina State Board of Elections informed PolitiFact that it’s implementing the brand new legislation and that it discovered 9 such people and is investigating their citizenship standing.
States, together with North Carolina, take a number of steps to make sure that solely residents forged ballots together with that folks registering to vote should signal an software, beneath penalty of perjury, testifying that they’re U.S. residents.
‘Vice President Kamala Harris speaks Could 1, 2024, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP)
Voter enthusiasm and the presidential candidates’ positions on the financial system, abortion or immigration will drive voters’ selections and affect the election — not fraud.
As of Oct. 2, polls confirmed a tight contest between Trump and Harris in battleground states.
“Trump’s two earlier elections additionally featured very shut races within the states that determined the election,” mentioned Kyle Kondik, managing Editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball on the College of Virginia Middle for Politics.
“It stands to purpose that this race must be shut once more.”
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