After 25 tumultuous rounds the mud has barely settled on some of the chaotic finals races in reminiscence.
And 18 groups have lastly turn into eight after a season stuffed with twists and turns, with favourites chucking up the sponge at will.
Collingwood’s title defence is formally over earlier than spring has formally sprung. They are not alone amongst current flag winners on the sidelines of September, with the winners of six of the previous seven premierships staying at dwelling.
Right now of the yr discuss often turns to the highest 4 because the favourites, and the underside half of the eight as additionally runs. In spite of everything, solely two sides have gained a flag from the underside half of the ultimate eight because it got here into place in 1994.
However 2024 has confirmed that it’s a season a bit completely different to most others. Arguably the three hottest groups heading into the finals sit outdoors the highest 4, with the eighth-placed Carlton being the aspect many deemed as flag favourites as not too long ago as midway by means of the yr.
This weekend will see these 4 sides whittled down to only two. The survivors shall be effectively positioned to turn into the sixth aspect to make the grand last from this place within the last eight period.
That is how every of those sides would possibly make a well-known cost, and what would possibly cease them of their tracks.
Roaring again into rivalry
The Lions have roared again into premiership rivalry after a sluggish begin to the season. (Getty Photos: Albert Perez)
Coming into the season many tabbed Brisbane because the almost definitely to hoist the cup in 2024. In spite of everything, they have been solely a kick away from doing so final yr, they usually solely seemed to get higher within the low season.
As an alternative of a quick begin, Brisbane stumbled out of the blocks. A lot of the indicators have been there, however these important last two kicks — inside 50 after which in the direction of purpose — have been points for Chris Fagan’s aspect.
The Lions’s skill to fit objectives considerably improved because the yr progressed. That improved skill in entrance of the sticks has, unsurprisingly, led to extra wins.
Brisbane’s underlying recreation stays largely unchanged — they management first possession and subsequently territory, grinding opposition sides into submission. Their specialty is locking the ball inside their half for repeat probabilities. Virtually no workforce scores extra from the entrance half than the Lions
If there’s an ongoing weak spot, it is what occurs when it breaks by means of that top line. They’ve taken their time in changing easy, again half ball customers comparable to Keidean Coleman and Daniel Wealthy, hurting their skill to ease the stress down again. That is regardless of Dayne Zorko’s emergence as a defender.
They’ve additionally suffered a collection of accidents to their taller defensive shares with substitute and makeshift choices partnering Harris Andrews.
Regardless of their co-captain’s brilliance, the Lions have been round common on a variety of key defensive indicators. If sides can transfer the ball up the bottom rapidly, the Lions defence can bleed marks inside 50 and quit simple photographs.
Carlton, with their two tall stars Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay probably coming back from damage, will supply the Lions a large check.
Overcoming a aspect like Carlton will go an extended technique to proving how prepared they’re to beat any of the edges in entrance of them — irrespective of how they match up with their weaknesses.
Recovering from being battered and Blue
Charlie Curnow is about to return for the primary week of finals after struggling an damage. (Getty Photos: Daniel Pockett)
For just a few hours two weeks in the past, Carlton’s season seemed carried out.
After Jack Higgins’s final second purpose, Blues followers have been compelled to look at to see if Fremantle would kill their yr.
Port Adelaide lastly emerged to save lots of the Blues hopes, however what model of Carlton will play within the finals stays to be seen.
The Blues began the yr as one of many hottest sides within the competitors earlier than being slowed by ever smarter opponents and, maybe extra critically, accidents.
The Blues completed the yr with 18 gamers on their damage record, together with a few of their most essential gamers.
A Carlton aspect with Curnow, McKay, Adam Cerra, Sam Docherty, Adam Saad, Jack Martin, and Mitch McGovern is a radically completely different proposition to 1 with out them.
When flying, Carlton can beat groups in a wide range of methods. They will lean on their inside ball winners comparable to Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and George Hewett to get them flying. They will additionally sit again somewhat extra and assault off the rebound, utilizing Nic Newman and Saad to tear opposition sides aside.
Throughout the course of the yr they have been the aspect that has turned inside 50s to objectives most effectively — largely right down to their skill to search out one-on-one alternatives for his or her forwards to capitalise on.
If there is a weak spot, it comes on the defensive aspect of the ball. The Blues have struggled to cease different groups from scoring from stoppages, particularly when the ball is locked within the different workforce’s half.
They sit forward of solely North Melbourne and West Coast in factors conceded from stoppage normally.
Much more surprisingly they’re worse than each of these backside 4 sides in defending ahead half stoppages — conceding roughly a purpose each fourth stoppage.
That is the opposite aspect of their ball profitable midfield — with assault comes the potential to get harm.
In opposition to Brisbane, whose technique leans closely on repeat assaults from entrance half territory dominance, Carlton’s vulnerabilities shall be on present. If they’ll regain near their greatest aspect, they are going to want their greatest efforts to resist a aspect constructed to check their weaknesses.
Low flying Hawks able to swoop
The younger Hawks have confirmed harmful once they swoop on the construct in open area. (Getty Photos: Michael Willson)
The rise of Sam Mitchell’s Hawks’ has been the discuss of the AFL world over the past three months.
Hawthorn have little to lose this finals collection, having exceeded most expectations already.
A workforce with nothing to lose is a harmful opponent. The Hawks swarm and swoop on the ball, pushing the vitality at each flip. Waves of stress put on down opponents, spilling the ball or creating intercept alternatives for his or her defenders.
Hawthorn has turn into more and more adept at committing additional numbers across the ball, denying choices to ball carriers, and being able to snare the bottom ball that outcomes.
Their excessive defensive position and their tendency to maneuver backwards with the ball from stoppages additionally provides to the numbers they focus on this space, able to launch ahead.
The Hawks have dominated sides on the bottom, and successfully unfold once they’ve gained the ball in addition to virtually some other workforce.
The construction has taken them from winless after 5 video games, all the way in which to finals.
Whereas the Hawks are arguably the strongest remaining workforce at swooping the ball on the bottom, they battle when the ball begins to achieve nice heights.
The Hawks battle to search out open teammates for marks in contrast with most different finalists. They’ve additionally struggled to win contested marks on the similar price as most different prime sides.
As a smaller aspect across the floor, Hawthorn would not have the identical skill to win excessive balls. This might come to chunk because the defences get extra staunch because the footy will get extra critical.
Hawthorn shares some similarities to their elimination last opponents. The Canines, just like the Hawks, are heavy on utilizing handballs and prefer to exit stoppages by means of the again of the competition.
This similarity would possibly see some very attention-grabbing battles within the center.
Canines defending their patch
Marcus Bontempelli is without doubt one of the few Bulldogs remaining from the 2016 premiership. (Getty Photos: Michael Willson)
If there’s one aspect who is aware of find out how to win from the decrease elements of the eight, it is the Canines.
That well-known 2016 premiership noticed the Bulldogs march from seventh all the way in which to the flag, beating minor premiers Sydney to cap the season.
There’s an actual likelihood {that a} comparable flag would additionally undergo a Sydney aspect that completed the season on prime of the ladder.
Like 2016, the 2024 Canines heated up because the season progressed, discovering their last kind in time for the footy to turn into critical.
Solely six of that 2016 aspect nonetheless stay on the present record, however these names are on the core of the present Bulldogs aspect. One solely must look to talisman Marcus Bontempelli to see the legacy.
After a sluggish begin to the yr, the Bulldogs steamed dwelling by remodeling parts of their recreation and returning partly to what has made them good lately.
The Canines’s recreation is about dominating territory and successfully defending up the sector — particularly after profitable the exhausting ball at contests.
The Canines dominate the within 50 battle like no different aspect, utilizing their harmful midfield group to realize area positioning. In recent times the Canines have emphasised producing repeat inside 50s, generally sacrificing high quality of entries for pace and second probabilities.
This skill to dominate area positioning has considerably helped their new look defence. The Bulldogs have practically utterly overhauled their defence within the two years, with Rory Lobb, Joel Freijah, Nick Coffield, Baku Khamis, Liam Jones and James O’Donnell all enjoying a big function for a defence that has carried out effectively at stopping opposition photographs at purpose.
When the Canines do permit photographs, nonetheless, they are usually way more precious photographs than different sides. The Bulldogs permit a comparatively excessive price of marks for opposition inside 50 entries, a transparent signal that when the upfield dam is breached it breaks badly.
When put collectively, this implies opposition sides have been capable of convert photographs into objectives at price way over league common. Opposition sides have pulled off “upset” kind losses with fewer photographs than the Canines 3 times this yr already.
That is the a part of the sport that the Canines must nail right down to cost by means of September once more.
If they’ll work out their connection between their forwards and upfield gamers, few groups have the defensive skill to cease them.
- ABC Sport shall be dwell running a blog all of the AFL finals and the Brownlow Medal at abc.web.au/sport
