As the US presidential election approaches, the race to draw voters has intensified. Among the many totally different constituencies the Democrats and Republicans are battling over, there may be one which stands out: the Muslim neighborhood.
Though Muslims represent roughly 1 % of the American inhabitants, they’re an essential voting bloc as a result of they’re concentrated in swing states, which are sometimes narrowly received in elections.
On this election cycle, the Muslim neighborhood appears extra united than ever over a single political concern: the battle in Gaza. Any candidate hoping to win over massive segments of Muslim voters must handle neighborhood calls for for an finish to the bloodshed in Palestine.
That is in accordance with a brand new research revealed by the Institute for Social Coverage and Understanding (ISPU) in partnership with Emgage and Change Analysis. It’s based mostly on a survey carried out in late June and early July centered on how Muslims in three swing states – Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan – intend to vote within the 2024 presidential election.
What we discovered is that President Joe Biden’s dealing with of the battle in Gaza has turned Muslims, who in 2020 had been a few of his largest supporters, into his sharpest detractors.
In 2020, about 65 % of Muslim voters in these states confirmed as much as forged their ballots for Biden. This assist was very important to his electoral victory as a result of he received key swing states by small margins. He received Georgia by simply 12,000 votes, a state the place greater than 61,000 Muslims voted, and Pennsylvania by 81,000 votes, the place 125,000 Muslims voted.
In contrast, in our survey, carried out earlier than Biden dropped out of the presidential race, solely 12 % of respondents stated they might vote for him, marking a dramatic drop in assist not seen amongst every other group studied. Whereas this impacts the presidential race, it has additionally manifested in a broader disillusionment with the institution of the Democratic Get together.
The battle on Gaza has unified Muslim voters in a method that no different concern has in current reminiscence. In keeping with the 2020 American Muslim Ballot carried out by ISPU, healthcare (19 %), the financial system (14 %) and social justice (13 %) had been the highest voting points for Muslim voters.
Evaluate that with 2024: Throughout the partisan spectrum, the highest precedence of Muslim voters in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan is the battle in Gaza (61 %), adopted by holding the US out of overseas wars (22 %).
Discount of army assist to Israel additionally garnered the assist of the overwhelming majority of Muslim voters in our research, who, no matter partisan sentiments, all overwhelmingly see this coverage as a cause to vote for a candidate. Whereas a battle abroad could seem removed from the each day considerations of American Muslim voters, many see the US position – offering unconditional assist and diplomatic cowl to Israel – as complicity within the continued oppression of Palestinians.
The significance of the battle in Gaza for Muslim voters was made clear months earlier than we carried out our survey. The Muslim neighborhood performed a number one position within the Uncommitted Nationwide Motion, which urged Democratic voters to vote “uncommitted” in presidential primaries of their states. The initiative managed to get greater than 700,000 Democrats to take action, making clear their demand for a change within the Biden administration’s tone and coverage on Israel and Palestine.
This dramatic Muslim migration away from Biden shouldn’t be a wholesale leap to the opposite aspect of the aisle, nevertheless. Muslim assist for Trump inched up from 18 % in 2020 to 22 % in 2024 in Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Overwhelmingly, former Muslim supporters of Biden are shifting to 3rd events or are nonetheless undecided. Our research discovered that just about a 3rd of Muslim voters will both vote a third-party candidate (27 %) or write in a candidate (3 %). About 17 % of Muslims stated they’ve but to determine on a candidate in contrast with 6 % of most of the people.
This implies there may be nonetheless room and time for candidates to win over this very important constituency. And it appears they’re attempting.
Not solely has Biden pulled out of the race, however Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has signalled she is distancing herself from his unflinching assist for Israel’s battle on Gaza. In July, the vice chairman didn’t attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handle to Congress, stated she is not going to be silent concerning the struggling in Gaza and made clear her assist for a ceasefire.
In August, she picked as her working mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who’s broadly considered extra sympathetic to the Palestinian trigger than short-listed Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. This yr, Walz praised uncommitted voters in Minnesota, calling them “civically engaged” and saying, “This concern is a humanitarian disaster. They’ve each proper to be heard.”
And whereas Muslims had been cautiously optimistic at finest, the Harris marketing campaign’s refusal to permit a Palestinian American to talk on the Democratic Nationwide Conference final week has soured this hope.
Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West have each been vocal of their assist for the individuals of Gaza. West selected Melina Abdullah, a Black Muslim lady as his working mate. Stein selected Muslim activist and tutorial Rudolph “Butch” Ware.
Even Republican candidate Donald Trump’s marketing campaign is reaching out to Arab American voters – a shock given the anti-Muslim rhetoric he used when campaigning in 2016. Folks related along with his marketing campaign have been attempting to woo Arab voters in swing states. Trump’s youngest daughter, Tiffany, married the son of a Lebanese American businessman, Massad Boulous, who has been attempting to steer Arabs in Michigan to vote for the previous president as a result of present administration’s failed coverage in Gaza.
The Muslim neighborhood’s mobilisation on Palestine has come at a heavy value for a lot of. The Council on American Islamic Relations reported an unprecedented spike in incidents of bias: a 56 % enhance in experiences of Islamophobia in 2023. Anti-Palestinian racism has additionally skyrocketed, a worrying pattern mirrored within the capturing of three Palestinian college students in Vermont who had been sporting the keffiyeh scarf. Hundreds – lots of them Muslim college students – had been arrested at campus protests, and lots of had been threatened with expulsion or confronted legal costs for his or her pro-Palestinian activism at schools and universities throughout the US.
And but even with the implications of taking a public stance on Palestine, Muslim voters look like undeterred this time round. Solidarity with the individuals of Gaza has emerged as the one most essential concern for American Muslim voters, a bunch no candidate can afford to disregard.
The views expressed on this article are the authors’ personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
