Twelve months in the past Chris Fagan sat within the bowels of the MCG, simply minutes after his Brisbane Lions had fallen agonisingly wanting premiership glory.
It did not take Fagan lengthy to refocus, to September 2024.
“You already know there’s numerous groups within the historical past of the sport which have misplaced shut grand finals have gone on to win premierships within the ensuing years,” Fagan instructed the media after the heartbreaking loss to Collingwood.
“So, you understand me — that’ll be my perspective.”
ABC Sport is dwell running a blog each spherical of the AFL and NRL seasons in 2024.
Virtually precisely 12 months earlier than Fagan’s proclamation, John Longmire sat in the identical spot in the identical room in the identical place. So shut, but so removed from the final word aim.
Getting back from a loss when victory is so shut is hard. However because the novelist F. Scott Fitzgerald as soon as wrote, “You should not confuse a single failure with a ultimate defeat”.
On the planet of footy, filled with narratives that may span years and many years, it might probably typically be simply in the future that shapes a profession.
The 2024 AFL grand ultimate pits the minor premiers of 2024 in opposition to the crew that has received probably the most video games during the last three seasons. Each want to proper the wrongs of a latest grand ultimate previous.
Either side are well-oiled, formidable machines. They’ve overwhelmed the opposite 16 sides on the best way to the ultimate recreation of the season.
That is how either side will win the 2024 AFL grand ultimate.
Sydney’s crimson and white defensive wall
Quite a bit tends to go proper for a footy crew once you end the 12 months on prime of the ladder. For a lot of the season the Sydney Swans had been the pace-setters.
The Swans completed first in an entire number of essential classes, from video games received to factors scored.
Typically it is exhausting to pin down the origin of the strengths of such a whole aspect.
Errol Gulden says the Swans have a defensive mindset which has propelled them to success. (AAP: Joel Carrett)
However for the Swans, latest historical past makes it slightly simpler. Loads of what makes the aspect tick is the work they do with out the ball in hand.
The Swans model has lengthy been constructed on defensive effort, as defined by Sydney star Errol Gulden.
“I believe we defended very well. Which clearly, our offence comes off of the again of that,” Gulden mentioned after the win over Port Adelaide.
“Once we defend the bottom nicely, we arrange nicely, it is clearly slightly bit simpler to get the ball going ahead.”
“The premise of our recreation is off our defence.”
That is been true since, seemingly, the beginning of the twenty first century.
Even when the Swans missed the finals in 2019 and 2020 they had been nonetheless throttling opposition entries up ahead.
These two years taught the Swans a helpful lesson – the worth of the counter-attack.
The Swans are on the prime for scores from intercepts within the defensive half of the bottom. If a aspect slacks defensively off after dropping an opportunity to attain the harboursiders know how you can exploit them.
For many sides, this could come at the price of defence. The Swans, nevertheless, have been in a position to catch lightning in a bottle. They’re in a position to each successfully cease groups and do injury concurrently.
Sydney’s transition recreation is available in a few totally different types — fast by means of the center or sluggish up the wing.
Sydney’s first intuition is to get the ball transferring shortly by means of the hall. If a aspect overcommits to the center of the bottom the Swans are adept at deploying fast little results in the boundary. This could lull the opposite crew right into a false sense of safety.
Each modes are harmful, however opposition groups have most popular to see the latter on the expense of the previous.
The Sydney defensive effectiveness can be slightly unconventional.
The Swans concede extra photographs than among the different prime sides however they’re adept at forcing groups to take low-percentage photographs. On the sphere, you may discover them denying entry to the hotspots straight in entrance of aim.
As an alternative, they’re content material to permit main marks to the fringes of the 50-metre arc. Sydney’s opponents common rather more troublesome photographs than some other aspect.
Additionally they have a desire to spoil – ending because the primary spoiling aspect who additionally face the fewest one-on-one contests per recreation. This helps cowl for his or her barely undersized defensive unit.
Towards most groups this mix is lethal. However Brisbane is not like most groups.
The Lions’ roar within the entrance half
For the previous six seasons, few sides have brushed the hazard in assault of the Brisbane Lions.
Brisbane is firmly a entrance half crew, scoring closely from entrance half intercepts and stoppages.
They attempt to lure their opponents of their ahead line and hold them there.
Their multi pronged assault can beat opponents no matter their defensive strengths. If groups have sturdy tall defenders, they’ll isolate somebody like Charlie Cameron or Cam Rayner deeper.
Towards groups which have weaker tall shares, they are going to look to focus on Joe Daniher or Eric Hipwood.
They will play quick and sluggish, and rating in each congestion and area. Developing with a plan to cease the Lions in assault is among the hardest jobs in footy.
“The second half was our model. We shifted the ball and made them defend.” Lions chief Lachie Neale mirrored after their epic preliminary ultimate win.
It is a model that Fagan has caught by by means of thick and skinny. After their loss to GWS dropped them to a document of two wins and 5 losses, Fagan instructed ABC Sport that he was sticking with what labored.
“We actually have not, you understand, tried to vary the best way that we’re taking part in. It has been a fairly profitable technique to play for the final 5 or so years.”
The underlying components of the Lions’ play had been working even when the outcomes weren’t there. Because the season progressed the Brisbane assault slowly discovered their ft.
One component of their assault continued to lag, nevertheless.
The Lions’ accuracy in entrance of aim has struggled, particularly in terms of regulation set photographs.
The Lions discovered their kicking boots final week in opposition to Geelong. It was possible what propelled them into the grand ultimate.
Funkiness reigns for the Swans and Lions
If the Swans and Lions are set for a blockbuster match at one finish of the bottom, what concerning the different finish? You already know, the tip with a number of All Australians from each groups?
This may be promoting the opposite a part of the equation quick. A part of this may be as a result of among the funkiness from each groups on show.
The Sydney ahead line is a good instance of this. The Swans might have completed first for factors scored this 12 months, however in addition they completed final for marks inside 50 per inside 50 entry.
As an alternative of on the lookout for large grabs, the Swans are dedicated to the crew recreation.
“Everybody simply performed their position. My position final week was simply to compete and produce the ball to floor. You already know Paps [Tom Papley] did the injury and now everybody bought their lick of the ice cream tonight.” Joel Amartey mentioned final week.
“It is simply everybody taking part in their position.”
Amartey’s feedback underline Sydney’s crew first method to assault. The Swans additionally lead the league for attacking spoils – stopping opposition intercept marks and permitting their harmful small forwards to create havoc.
The Swans are extra keen to stretch their scoring zone than most groups. The Swans lead the league for targets – and photographs – outdoors 50. This creates protection complications for any opposition aspect.
If Sydney’s versatile assault is considerably deliberate, accidents have compelled Brisbane to adapt on their ft. Accidents to their defensive shares by means of the 12 months have compelled the Harris Andrews-led unit to adapt and overcome.
Brisbane’s potential to cease opposition sides from doing injury up ahead depends extra on stopping the ball getting ahead moderately than a lockdown, final line defence. The Lions are under league common for opposition factors per inside 50 — a sign of this weak spot.
When the Lions do win the ball of their again half, rebounding defenders similar to Dayne Zorko can do injury at a second’s discover.
Whereas the Lions have a tendency to manage the tempo extra popping out of the backline utilizing uncontested marks, they’ll additionally catch opposition sides napping.
Variations within the center may very well be the deciding issue
Some sides deal with utilizing received clearances to do injury on the scoreboards straight, whereas others like to make use of them to dominate territory and put on groups down.
Sydney falls within the former class and Brisbane extra within the latter. This cut up may be a serious deciding level within the recreation.
Coming into the season Longmire acknowledged enchancment within the contest as a precedence.
“Throughout totally different instances, and positively in several components of the sport final 12 months, we had been truly fairly good at it after which we simply dropped away in different components.” Longmire mentioned previous to the beginning of the season.
The recruitment of gamers similar to Brodie Grundy and James Jordon have given their contest recreation a shot within the arm — getting first possession extra typically.
Regardless of this the Swans are likely to lose the contested possession steadiness. That is an space they have a tendency to lose closely when overwhelmed, like in opposition to Port Adelaide in spherical 21.
Against this, the Lions are dominant in terms of successful the exhausting ball — each in clearances and elsewhere up the bottom.
Brisbane’s group of well-rounded midfielders can assault and defend equally, giving their ahead half recreation a kickstart. In latest weeks the return of Will Ashcroft has added some dynamism to the star-studded group.
At instances they’ll battle to get efficient seems to be at aim straight from clearances — particularly once they aren’t locked within the entrance half. Total, the steadiness often works, however typically they could be a bit rushed when getting the ball upfield.
A basic grand ultimate may very well be able to unfold
These little battles throughout the bottom will all play an enormous a part of the results of the season.
On paper, little or no separates the 2 sides. Of their earlier assembly, the Lions staged a fourth-quarter comeback to win by simply two factors.
That recreation performed a bit out to the shape information. Brisbane received 10 extra clearances than Sydney, however the Swans kicked 4 targets further from them. Brisbane, in contrast, was in a position to rating closely from turnovers.
Brisbane managed the sport through uncontested marks, whereas Sydney examined the Lions for pace and effectivity going inside 50.
And, after all, Brisbane’s inaccuracy in entrance of targets almost value them the sport.
If that recreation is something to go by, this may very well be a basic.
The 2024 grand ultimate is about to be a cauldron of built-up emotion.
For one aspect, latest failure will grow to be a ultimate success.
The opposite will rue one other missed alternative at AFL greatness. An opportunity that won’t come once more.
