Because the artwork world returns to its full rhythm this season, most market conversations have centered on the notion that “the market is slowing down” and “we’re now not in a pandemic.” Whereas some glimmers of optimism appeared throughout Frieze Seoul and the Armory Present, the primary auctions between Hong Kong and New York signaled a brand new regular throughout areas, with extra modest estimates and, at instances, decrease hammer costs than the height durations when ultra-contemporary artists loved a frenzied rise. On this purchaser’s market, collectors are trying to find offers and high quality whereas grappling with the fact that what they overpaid for up to now could not yield the identical returns now.
Artnet’s The Intelligence Report Mid-12 months Evaluation 2024 not too long ago revealed that each class has shrunk considerably up to now yr, with values for the ultra-contemporary section dropping by 39 % from 2023 to 2024. Even so, this class nonetheless accounted for a notable $164.8 million in complete gross sales for works by artists born after 1974. Though it is a substantial determine, it falls beneath earlier highs, reflecting the broader pattern: a 29 % decline in complete gross sales for the “large three” public sale homes in comparison with final yr. The cooling of the secondary market was underscored by latest gross sales in New York and Hong Kong, the place beforehand in-demand, blue-chip names skilled declines. But, the season nonetheless had its share of surprises, report costs and lively bidding—particularly for fresh-to-market items and public sale debuts.
Observer carried out a cross-region evaluation of key outcomes and developments from the latest auctions in New York and Hong Kong, simply because the artwork world braces for the upcoming London Night Gross sales, the artwork week in Paris and fall’s main European artwork gala’s.
The mid-season gross sales in New York
The primary alerts on the state of the American market, significantly for modern and ultra-contemporary artwork, emerged from Phillips’ New Now: Trendy & Modern Artwork sale, which introduced in $7.5 million with a modest sell-through fee of 78 % and 87 % offered by worth. Nonetheless, a number of names struggled to match their previous costs. A telling instance was Josh Smith’s Nonetheless within the Backyard (2018), which, regardless of a excessive estimate of $30,000, landed at a really reasonable $19,000 earlier than going unsold. This end result aligns extra carefully with the lower-end costs seen for his works in 2020’s salon-style set up at Zwirner New York and marks a steep decline in comparison with more moderen major gross sales on the gallery’s Paris present and Eva Presenhuber.
Different outcomes mirrored recalibrated market expectations. A piece by Loie Hollowell, whose public sale costs have seen constant progress, offered for $53,350—simply barely above its $50,000 low estimate. The end result was extra extreme for Nate Lowman’s bullet-hole silkscreen, which hammered at solely $28,000 in opposition to its estimate of $20,000 to $30,000, translating to a staggering 86-percent loss from the $197,000 initially paid at Sotheby’s.
SEE ALSO: Phillips’ Specialist Patrizia Koenig On What to Count on This Season
Regardless of these sobering outcomes, shiny spots emerged for in-demand younger artists who are sometimes offered out within the major market. Yuan Fang’s Expanse (Three Figures) from 2022 exceeded expectations, promoting for $35,560 in opposition to a $20,000 excessive estimate, whereas a Sara Anstis work fetched $53,340 from a $20,000 excessive estimate. Etel Adnan’s Forêt continued its upward trajectory, promoting for $95,250.
A report value was achieved for Daisy Parris’s massive summary portray, I’d Slightly Get No Sleep Subsequent To You, which offered for $254,000—nicely above its $20,000-30,000 estimate, exhibiting that area nonetheless exists for standout outcomes. Different highlights included robust performances from Theaster Gates and Alfred Leslie, with works by each exceeding excessive estimates, and Brook Hsu’s satyr household (2018), which set a brand new report at $25,400. Total, the public sale noticed six new information, with noteworthy mentions for Richard Nonas ($44,450), Deana Lawson ($40,640), Peter Cain ($107,950) and Moira Dryer ($39,370). Regardless of combined alerts, there are nonetheless shiny spots and causes for cautious optimism out there.
Passing the hammer, Sotheby’s held a collection of curated auctions in New York in late September that reportedly achieved the very best sell-through fee of the previous 4 Modern Curated gross sales with a powerful 98.5 % and an mixture complete of $1.5 million—exceeding its excessive estimate of $1.3 million.
One standout was the Abrams Household Assortment sale, which introduced in $13.1 million in opposition to a presale excessive estimate of $14.1 million, with a sturdy 96.3 % sell-through fee and practically half of the works surpassing their excessive estimates. The success might be attributed to the freshness of the fabric—98 % of the items had been new to the market, with practically 90 % making their public sale debut. A key spotlight was Isamu Noguchi’s Research for Vitality Void, which offered for a outstanding $4.7 million. Moreover, pioneering feminine artists noticed renewed curiosity, together with Mary Bauermeister’s Trichterrelief, which achieved $264,000, marking the second-highest value for the artist at public sale, and Marisol’s The Bicycle Race, which fetched $456,000. New information had been additionally set for works by Lee Bontecou, Edward Avedisian, Lynn Leland, Mario Yrissary and Iqbal Geoffrey.
Sotheby’s famous that this public sale had the very best variety of new consumers for the sort of sale since 2000, demonstrating robust engagement from rising collectors. In the meantime, the sale curated by powerhouse sports activities agent Wealthy Paul totaled $20.5 million after an estimate of $17-25 million with a strong 84 % sell-through fee. High tons included works by girls artists comparable to Ruth Asawa’s Untitled (S.467, Hanging 4-Lobed Steady Type with a Sphere within the Second Lobe), which achieved $4.1 million.
The final to take the public sale stage in New York was Christie’s with its Submit-Conflict to Current sale on October 1, reaching $30.5 million and promoting 85 % by worth. Main the sale was a monumental untitled Ed Ruscha canvas, which achieved $2.6 million. Notable outcomes adopted, together with Ruth Asawa’s Untitled (S.864, Wall-Mounted Tied-Wire, Open-Heart, Six Branched Type Based mostly on Nature) from 1951, which soared to $403,200 in opposition to its $100,000-150,000 estimate, and Gerhard Richter’s Abstraktes Bild, which fetched above $2 million. Alex Katz’s Springtime additionally made a powerful exhibiting at $1.6 million, whereas Bob Thompson’s The Recreation of Cephalus and Procris, recent to market, achieved $529,200, nicely above its $200,000-300,000 estimate.
The sale was marked by high-quality consignments from the gathering of the 21c Museum Lodges by Laura Lee Brown and Steve Wilson, which alone introduced in $2,172,492. Contemporary-to-market works from modern stars like Lynette Yiadom-Boakye’s 11 am Monday, which realized $567,000, and Simone Leigh’s Meridian at $403,200, drew appreciable curiosity. Museum-quality items, comparable to Nick Cave’s Soundsuit, offered for $170,100, whereas Titus Kaphar’s An Icon for Future achieved $226,800. Bisa Butler set a brand new report with The Storm, fetching $151,200 from an estimate of $50,000-70,000.
Regardless of these robust outcomes, some outstanding tons struggled. Works by Derrick Adams and Mickalene Thomas, two names nonetheless sustaining market momentum, failed to seek out consumers.
Different vital collections included that of Robert Shimshak and Marion Brenner, which achieved a complete of $1,428,210, led by Ed Ruscha’s Skytown, promoting for $693,000, and Felix Gonzalez-Torres’s Untitled (Nonetheless Life), which introduced in $270,900. In the meantime, the Rosa de la Cruz assortment sale noticed robust curiosity, with two Ana Mendieta works, Untitled ($27,720) and Untitled (Physique Tracks) ($32,760), promoting above their estimates. Given the numerous variety of Mendieta items from this assortment, Christie’s plans to distribute these strategically throughout future gross sales to keep away from disrupting the artist’s market.
The sale concluded with a collection of public sale information, together with Lois Dodd’s Reflection of the Barn, which offered for $378,000, and Cynthia Hawkins’s Foreign money of Which means #9, which achieved $119,700—additional testomony to the evolving dynamics and shifting curiosity in each established and rediscovered artists.
Hong Kong vs. New York
In the identical weeks, Christie’s and Phillips held their auctions in Hong Kong, providing an opportunity to match the efficiency of those two key market hubs and acquire a clearer view of the worldwide artwork market’s trajectory. Notably, Sotheby’s determined to delay its extremely anticipated night sale at its new Hong Kong headquarters till November, the place the occasion will probably be headlined by a $30 million Rothko. Over the previous few years, the three main public sale homes have been ramping up their presence within the Asia-Pacific area, significantly in Hong Kong. Phillips opened its headquarters in 2023, and Christie’s and Sotheby’s adopted go well with this yr with new, high-end workplaces in Central, signaling a fierce dedication to capturing the area’s deepening pool of collectors.
Regardless of intensive promotion of its new location and its seasonal night sale, Christie’s twentieth and twenty first Century Artwork Night Sale on September 27 fell simply in need of expectations, totaling HK$1 billion ($133.2 million)—just under the decrease finish of its presale estimate. Nonetheless, the strong sell-through fee of 92 % by lot was a optimistic signal. This efficiency was already an enchancment from final yr’s HK$694 million ($89 million) complete, when fifty-seven tons had been provided and the sell-through fee was a decrease 81 %, together with a number of withdrawals.
The night was anchored by a Van Gogh panorama, which offered for HK$250 million (roughly $32 million), and an early Claude Monet Water Lilies portray, which hammered at HK$180 million ($23 million) in opposition to a low estimate of HK$200 million ($25 million). Regardless of these being probably the most anticipated tons, each in the end offered beneath their presale estimates—although they did set new Asian public sale information for these Western masters. The end result signifies that whereas demand for Western Trendy artwork is rising within the area, consumers there should not but keen to match the costs seen in established Western markets.
Some blue-chip Asian names additionally landed beneath expectations, comparable to a piece by Zao Wou-Ki that hammered at HK$80 million ($10.3 million) and one other by Kim Whan-Ki that offered for HK$56 million ($7.2 million), together with charges. These outcomes replicate a market that’s nonetheless robust however cautious as collectors recalibrate their expectations within the present atmosphere.
Performing notably higher in Christie’s Hong Kong gross sales had been a number of ultra-contemporary names, led by rising star Lucy Bull, who set a report for the area by reaching a stellar HK$15 million ($1.93 million earlier than charges)—thrice her pre-sale estimate of HK$5-8 million. One other standout was Filipino artist Robert Ventura, whose market had been comparatively quiet after a meteoric rise a couple of years in the past. His intricate portray State of Bloom, that includes cartoonish figures set in a post-apocalyptic panorama, offered on the cellphone for HK$36.6 million ($4.7 million, earlier than charges) to a Singaporean collector, underscoring the rising power of the Filipino modern artwork market.
Optimistic outcomes additionally got here from Asian-region contemporaries like Mehdi Ghadyanloo, whose latest exhibition on the Lengthy Museum probably fueled demand. His piece offered for HK$2.52 million ($324,459) in opposition to a pre-sale estimate of HK$800,000-1,200,000. Liu Ye’s charming portray of a bunny painter and mannequin additionally carried out solidly inside its estimate, reaching HK$13.08 million ($1.68 million). Huang Xiang’s psychedelic panorama Boundless Ocean – Huge Sky, coming recent from the studio, fetched HK$4.78 million ($616,600), barely beneath its estimate however nonetheless reflective of robust market curiosity.
Nonetheless, some worldwide modern stars underperformed. Christina Quarles’s piece landed at HK$1.26 million ($162,233) in opposition to an estimate of HK$2-4 million, indicating a cooler reception. In distinction, George Rental’s Stepmonk’s Diary (1996) reaffirmed the artist’s reputation, promoting for $279,400 (together with charges). Equally, Marina Perez Simão—a brand new Tempo Gallery favourite amongst younger Asian collectors—noticed her Untitled, acquired instantly from the gallery, promote for HK$1.64 million ($210,925), considerably above its HK$700,000-1,200,000 estimate.
Regardless of Christie’s give attention to presenting Trendy gems from each regional and Western masters, it was the modern and ultra-contemporary segments that drew probably the most lively bidding, probably pointing to the preferences of a brand new era of collectors. This pattern was mirrored in Phillips’s Hong Kong gross sales simply days later, reinforcing the shift in collector curiosity.
On October 4, Phillips hosted its New Now: Trendy & Modern Artwork public sale, that includes a various mixture of famend artists like Yoshitomo Nara, Takashi Murakami, Ayako Rokkaku, Issy Wooden, Miriam Cahn, Zhao Zhao and Edgar Plans, alongside rising names comparable to Kenichi Hoshino and Nguyen Quoc Dung. Regardless of the anticipation, many prime tons didn’t produce the anticipated fireworks. Takashi Murakami’s Flower of Hope (2019), a fresh-to-market piece, offered for HK$1,143,000 ($147,000), falling in need of its excessive expectations. Equally, Ayako Rokkaku’s Untitled (Wood Home), a novel hand-painted wood set up created dwell at Museum Jan in Amstelveen, Netherlands, achieved HK$698,500 ($89,942), indicating lukewarm curiosity.
Nonetheless, stronger outcomes had been posted by rising regional artists. Mehdi Ghadyanloo’s Untitled doubled its HK$120,000-180,000 estimate, promoting for HK$406,400 ($52,000), whereas Atsushi Kaga’s Practising a Magic with Robert (2008) flew previous its HK$35,000-55,000 estimate, reaching HK$241,300. Japanese artist Chiharu Shiota additionally noticed her Infinite Line obtain HK$381,000, surpassing its HK$200,000-300,000 estimate, reflecting a rising demand.
Yoshitomo Nara, who not too long ago had a museum survey at Guggenheim Bilbao, proved his market resilience. His Untitled (2002), a portray of one among his iconic women, offered for HK$1,651,000 (estimate: HK$800,000-1,200,000), and his small sculpture Hand Looking out fetched HK$406,400 ($52,330) regardless of being a part of an version of 150. Issy Wooden additionally carried out inside expectations, with Mozzarella / The Confidante (2020) promoting for HK$304,800 and Unsprung (2020) fetching HK$889,000.
Newer names like Japanese-American artist Chelsea Ryoko Wong and Vietnamese artist Nguyen Quoc Dung drew consideration as nicely, each reaching costs above their low estimates and first market values, signaling rising power within the ultra-contemporary section.
The highest-down evaluation
Whereas bidding has been extra restrained throughout latest auctions, Hong Kong has proven better dynamism and room for surprises, significantly within the ultra-contemporary section, whereas New York stays a stronghold for Postwar and modern artwork, particularly at larger value factors.
These patterns align with the findings of the Morgan Stanley report cited in The Intelligence Report Mid-12 months Evaluation. Though New York continues to dominate the market, latest public sale successes and figures have been closely depending on the supply of high-caliber personal collections and fresh-to-market high quality materials. Nonetheless, the ultra-contemporary section (artists born after 1974) has been hit more durable by the departure of short-term market speculators who as soon as drove up costs for a lot of of those names. In distinction, new and rising artists, each regional and worldwide, proceed to encourage wholesome bidding within the newest Asian-Pacific market hub, usually spurred by a brand new era of collectors searching for artwork that resonates with their style, way of life and cultural zeitgeist.
In keeping with the Morgan Stanley report, New York and Hong Kong have each distanced themselves from their rivals within the ultra-contemporary class, recording $269.4 million and $206.1 million, respectively—figures which are twelve and twenty-four instances larger than their 2013 totals. Whereas Hong Kong has confronted headwinds from China’s property disaster since 2022 and tightened rules that threaten town’s standing as a world enterprise hub, galleries and public sale homes proceed to put money into it. As famous within the report, complete gross sales in Hong Kong from 2013-2023 outpaced these in London, regardless of market turbulence.
The problem throughout areas, nonetheless, is securing true masterpieces that may obtain six-figure outcomes. Whereas New York stays the first hub for top-market gross sales, this section has slowed considerably. In 2022, town noticed $3.76 billion out of its $7.33 billion complete come from tons priced over $10 million, but the variety of such high-value tons has notably declined since then. Conversely, Hong Kong’s progress seems extra secure; in 2013, it generated simply $90.6 million from this value bracket, and by 2021, that quantity had greater than quintupled, stabilizing at the same time as Western Trendy and Postwar masters now face a extra tepid reception in New York because of each regional and generational shifts in style.
The upcoming London Night Gross sales stay a delicate level for the market, however the true take a look at for New York and the broader international Trendy and Modern artwork market will come within the November gross sales, that are prone to be influenced by each election outcomes and shifting rates of interest.
As market professional Marion Manaker famous, the broader image shouldn’t be as bleak as some have portrayed. Ends in each New York and Hong Kong had been usually stronger than final yr, with new information, doubled estimates and strong sell-through charges. As consumers have grow to be extra discerning, public sale homes have adjusted their methods and estimates accordingly, responding to a world financial and geopolitical panorama that has been evolving quickly within the post-COVID period.
