Reuters report on a survey from UK hiring agency BrightMine.
In abstract:
- UK median pay awards held regular at 4% in three months to September (prev: 4% in August)
- Anticipated median pay rise for 12 months forward drops to three% vs 6% in 2023
- Public sector pay awards unchanged at 5.5%
- Survey coated 64 pay awards affecting 433k staff
- Ahead steering primarily based on 289 companies representing ~500k staff
- Q2 2023 noticed greater will increase at 4.8%
Market Impression:
- Knowledge aligns with BoE’s expectations for wage progress moderation
- Helps case for additional charge cuts, with subsequent determination due Nov 7
- UK inflation hit 3-year low of 1.7% in September
BoE Commentary earlier in October:
- Gov Bailey alerts openness to quicker charge cuts if inflation eases
And simply yesterday:
- MPC’s Greene urges warning, citing longer-term inflation dangers
The Backside Line:
Survey suggests UK labor market cooling continues, although companies search “inventive methods” to retain expertise amid abilities shortages. Knowledge broadly supportive of BoE’s dovish pivot. Wage progress dynamics will proceed to play a task in BoE coverage making.
This text was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
