Satellite tv for pc imagery from November 26 reveals a major shift within the variety of bombers and fighter jets stationed at Russia’s Engels-2 airbase. In response to AMK Mapping, which posted the evaluation on its X account, Ukrainian intelligence channels seem to have missed the relocation of those plane completely.
The photographs present a notable lower within the variety of heavy bombers, with solely 5 strategic plane remaining: two Tu-160 Blackjacks and three Tu-95MS Bears. That is an unusually small presence in comparison with earlier phases of the battle in Ukraine.
The bottom additionally hosts a modest variety of tactical plane, together with two Su-35 Flankers, 4 Su-34 Fullbacks, and a further 4 Su-35 assault fighters. Supporting plane embody one Su-24MR reconnaissance jet and an An-12 cargo aircraft.
The discount in strategic bombers marks a major shift, suggesting that Engels-2 is being scaled again as a hub for large-scale operations. As an alternative, the bottom seems to be focusing extra on coaching actions and sustaining a smaller operational footprint. Observers imagine a lot of the relocated bombers have been transferred to Olenya Airbase, a distant facility within the Murmansk area of the Arctic.
Regardless of the general discount, the satellite tv for pc imagery additionally offers proof of operational exercise. One Tu-95 and three Tu-95MS bombers on the base had been reportedly armed with Kh-101 cruise missiles.
One other picture captures the loading of missiles onto a Tu-160 Blackjack, with a major variety of transport containers seen close by—probably holding extra ordnance or help tools.
The relocation of Russia’s strategic bombers might sign preparations for the subsequent stage of Moscow’s army operations. Alternatively, it might mirror a tactical response to Ukraine’s rising capabilities, notably its current authorization to strike deep inside Russian territory utilizing Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Engels-2, a key launch website for assaults in opposition to Ukraine, is a high-value goal that Kyiv could now really feel emboldened to interact.
Whereas any try by Ukraine to focus on Engels-2 with Storm Shadow missiles would carry immense operational dangers, the approval to conduct such strikes reshapes the strategic calculus. Engels-2’s position as a cornerstone of Russian offensive techniques underscores why its defenses, operations, and plane deployments are actually beneath intense scrutiny.
To successfully strike the Engels-2 airbase utilizing Storm Shadow missiles, Ukraine would wish to make use of meticulous planning and complicated techniques to beat the missile’s vary limitation [approximately 350 miles] whereas avoiding Russian air defenses. This requires a mixture of precision, mobility, and deception to make sure success in opposition to one in every of Russia’s most strategic airbases.
Step one includes positioning the launch platforms—probably modified Su-24 fighter-bombers—inside hanging distance of the goal. These plane would wish to function from forward-deployed airbases in jap Ukraine, probably close to Kharkiv or different areas alongside the frontlines.
From these positions, Engels-2 lies throughout the missile’s operational vary, however not with out dangers. To attenuate publicity, the plane would probably must fly extraordinarily low, skimming terrain at altitudes of 100–150 toes to evade radar detection.
Concurrently, Ukraine might deploy a diversionary technique to mislead Russian defenses. This may contain launching long-range drones towards Engels-2 as decoys, distracting air protection techniques just like the S-400 or Pantsir whereas the first plane method undetected.
To boost this, Ukraine might additionally make use of digital warfare measures to jam Russian radar installations, lowering their means to detect the incoming strike.
The coordination of such an assault would hinge on high-quality intelligence. Satellite tv for pc imagery, presumably supplied by Western allies, might pinpoint the positions of Russian bombers and key infrastructure inside Engels-2.
Surveillance drones might additional present real-time updates to establish gaps in Russia’s air protection protection. Timing would even be essential, with an optimum strike launched during times of lowered readiness, equivalent to shift modifications or opposed climate circumstances, to maximise the factor of shock.
As soon as the Storm Shadow missiles are launched, they’d observe a low-altitude flight profile, skirting Russian air defenses earlier than participating their targets with pinpoint precision. To extend the chance of success, the strike might be synchronized with drone assaults and even artillery hearth from long-range techniques like HIMARS concentrating on close by installations to additional confuse defenders.
After firing, the launch plane would wish to quickly exfiltrate the world, sustaining low-altitude flight till they return to protected airspace. This may reduce the danger of interception by Russian fighter jets or surface-to-air missile techniques.
Ukraine’s means to hold out such an operation would rely closely on sustaining secrecy, leveraging superior Western expertise, and executing a flawlessly timed and coordinated assault. If profitable, a strike on Engels-2 might ship a major blow to Russia’s strategic airpower, disrupting its long-range bombing campaigns and undermining its army capabilities within the area.
Whereas mitigating the danger of missile strikes just like the Storm Shadow is a driving issue, the tactical method of dispersing strategic forces offers Russia with larger operational flexibility, reduces vulnerability to catastrophic losses, and creates strategic uncertainty for its adversaries.
This maneuver underscores the significance of survivability and flexibility in sustaining long-range bombing capabilities throughout a protracted battle.
One probably motive for relocating bombers from Engels-2 to Olenya Airbase is the potential menace posed by Ukrainian strikes utilizing long-range missiles just like the Storm Shadow. Nevertheless, from a Russian tactical perspective, one other essential issue is the dispersal of strategic belongings.
This resolution aligns with the necessity to cut back the danger of shedding a major variety of plane in a concentrated assault, whether or not by missiles, drones, or different means.
Consolidating quite a few strategic bombers at a single airbase, equivalent to Engels-2, makes it a high-priority goal for adversaries. By transferring plane to Olenya, positioned on the Kola Peninsula, Russia mitigates this vulnerability.
The dispersal complicates the enemy’s means to plan and execute coordinated strikes on a number of areas. It additionally forces adversaries to unfold their reconnaissance and concentrating on assets throughout a broader space, lowering the chance of a decisive blow.
Relocating bombers to Olenya additionally enhances logistical flexibility and readiness for operations in several theaters of battle. Olenya’s northern location makes it much less uncovered to Ukrainian strikes whereas positioning it nearer to potential operational areas, such because the Arctic or North Atlantic.
This strategic positioning permits Russia to help Arctic missions and mission energy in areas past the Ukrainian theater. Moreover, utilizing a number of bases permits for extra environment friendly rotation and upkeep of plane with out compromising operational availability.
The transfer additionally serves a twin objective of deception and psychological warfare. Often transferring plane between bases disrupts adversary intelligence-gathering efforts, making it tougher to foretell Russia’s subsequent strikes or plan efficient assaults.
The presence of strategic bombers at Olenya might be interpreted as preparation for operations in a totally totally different area, forcing adversaries to divert consideration and assets.
From an operational standpoint, Olenya might also supply geographic and environmental benefits, notably throughout harsh winter months. Southern bases like Engels-2 might face opposed climate or different circumstances that influence readiness.
Spreading belongings throughout a number of bases minimizes the danger of a single incident—whether or not pure or sabotage-related—crippling a whole bomber fleet.
It seems that Russia’s resolution to reposition strategic bombers displays preparations for the subsequent section of its operations, probably in response to Ukraine’s demonstrated functionality and Western authorization to strike deep inside Russian territory.
By dispersing belongings to bases like Olenya, Moscow goals to make sure the survivability of its long-range strike platforms whereas preserving operational flexibility.
This shift underscores a recognition of the rising menace posed by Ukrainian long-range weapons and highlights the Kremlin’s efforts to adapt to an evolving battlefield the place strategic depth is now not a assure of security.
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