Nogales, Arizona — The lull in unlawful crossings on the U.S.-Mexico border continued in October, in keeping with preliminary Customs and Border Safety figures obtained by CBS Information. However officers fear that might be upended by the presidential election on Tuesday.
Border Patrol brokers recorded almost 57,000 apprehensions of migrants between authorized entry factors alongside the U.S. southern border in October, inside federal statistics present. That is barely up from 54,000 in September, and similar to the 58,000 and 56,000 apprehensions tallied in August and July, respectively.
The final time month-to-month apprehensions had been decrease than the degrees seen prior to now 4 months was 4 years in the past, in September 2020, when Border Patrol apprehended fewer than 55,000 migrants alongside the U.S.-Mexico border, in keeping with historic CBP information.
CBP’s figures do not embrace these processed at authorized border entry factors, the place the Biden administration has been admitting greater than 1,000 migrants every day by means of an appointment system powered by a U.S. authorities telephone app often known as CBP One.
Jose Luis Gonzalez / REUTERS
After spiking to a document 250,000 in December 2023, unlawful crossings on the southern border dropped earlier this yr, primarily as a result of aggressive efforts by Mexico to interdict U.S.-bound migrants. They plunged even additional after President Biden invoked sweeping presidential powers to sharply restrict asylum in early June, falling precipitously that month and initially of July. Since then, migrant crossings have plateaued.
Whereas illegal crossings stay low, some U.S. officers are involved the presidential election may disturb the delicate equilibrium achieved on the southern border in latest months. Three U.S. officers mentioned there might be a spike in unlawful crossings if former President Donald Trump wins the election, as migrants attempt to enter the U.S. earlier than he takes workplace in January.
“I may undoubtedly see a rise, both a surge earlier than the inauguration or a sustained improve after the election,” one of many U.S. officers mentioned, requesting anonymity as a result of they weren’t approved to speak to the press.
Whereas Vice President Kamala Harris has vowed to maintain and strengthen Mr. Biden’s asylum restrictions, Trump has promised to seal the southern border altogether, together with by discontinuing the CBP One app and different packages that permit migrants to enter the U.S. legally. He additionally pledged to reinstate his hardline immigration insurance policies, just like the Stay-in-Mexico program, and launch the largest deportation operation in American historical past.
A CBP official mentioned the company “stays vigilant to continually shifting migration patterns — together with the operations of transnational prison organizations and different unhealthy actors that facilitate human smuggling — and adjusts operations accordingly.”
Throughout its first three years in workplace, the Biden administration struggled with an unprecedented migration disaster on the southern border, fueled partially by document arrivals of migrants from crisis-stricken nations like Venezuela, the place the U.S. can not ship deportees. It created scenes of chaos and coincided with mounting considerations among the many public about border safety.
It additionally ushered a dramatic coverage pivot by the Biden administration, which got here into workplace promising to “rebuild” the U.S. asylum system. However the asylum crackdown Mr. Biden enacted in June depends on the identical authority the Trump administration used to restrict authorized and unlawful immigration, and disqualifies most migrants from U.S. safety. Those that use the CBP One app are exempted.
Adam Isacson, a migration coverage analyst on the Washington Workplace on Latin America, a analysis and advocacy group, mentioned he expects migration flows to stay comparatively the identical if Harris wins, as she has pledged to largely proceed Biden’s insurance policies. However he predicted a “large soar” in border crossings if Trump is elected, particularly by these ready in Mexico for a CBP One appointment.
“The message, each from smugglers and the messages from migrants to one another, will likely be ‘get there now. There is a onerous deadline,'” Isacson mentioned, referring to Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025.
