US Financial Outlook Considerably Stronger Than You’d Assume

Dave:
We hear a number of destructive issues in regards to the US financial system or no less than a number of social media and let’s face it, the common media pushes a number of doom and gloom tales about what’s occurring fiscally and economically on this nation. However as we speak we’re going to take a step again and have a look at how the USA financial system as we speak in late 2024 compares to the remainder of the world and we’re going to be bringing on probably the greatest economists and forecasters within the nation to share what he thinks is in retailer for the broader American financial system, not only for this yr, however effectively into the long run.

Dave:
Hey everybody, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market, and as we speak we’re going to be joined once more by Joe Brusuelas. He’s been on the present earlier than speaking in regards to the World Financial system Tremendous common present, so we introduced him again on. When you don’t keep in mind, Joe is the principal and chief economist as RSM. He’s been named probably the greatest financial forecasters on the market by Bloomberg, and as we speak we’re going to speak to him about the place the US sits globally and the way we stack as much as different economies. We’ll speak about China’s financial slowdown. We’ll discuss in regards to the battle within the Center East and what that might imply for oil costs. We’ll additionally get Joe’s tackle the largest financial dangers going through the US and his prediction on the place fed charges will land within the subsequent yr, and I’m going to provide you somewhat little bit of a spoiler. Joe has a refreshingly optimistic however very candid view of the US financial system and he understands it in addition to anybody. He’s received a number of information, data, expertise to again up his opinions and in case you’re like me, you’ll like what he has to say about the way forward for the US financial system. With that, let’s deliver on Joe.

Dave:
Joe, welcome again to On the Market. Thanks for being right here as we speak.

Joe:
Thanks for having me on. It’s all the time good to speak to you, Dave.

Dave:
Effectively, we don’t all the time discuss in regards to the international financial system right here and available on the market, so I believe it could be useful in case you may perhaps simply give us a abstract of the worldwide financial system and form of the place the US sits when it comes to competitiveness, development, inflation, all the important thing indicators. How does the US stack up in opposition to the remainder of the world proper now?

Joe:
Okay. Effectively, I assume two issues. The primary is is that we have now seen the primary tentative steps of what we are able to name the worldwide restoration. It might seem that the preliminary worth shock attributable to the shutdown of provide chains throughout the pandemic has now ebbed. Central banks have seen the financial system start to recuperate and so they’re now engaged in a close to synchronized set of central financial institution price cuts. Whereas development isn’t going to be spectacular, it’s going to be strong in all probability into three to three.2% selection for the whole yr. Now, the USA, due to the mixed fiscal and financial firepower put to work throughout the pandemic emerged first, and what we’re seeing on this first section of the publish pandemic financial system is that the USA is trying rather a lot stronger its development price by way of mid-year 3.1% on a yr in the past foundation. Dave, we spent a number of time eager about the actual financial system in my enterprise and actual last personal demand that’s the very best proxy for the financial system.

Joe:
It’s up 2.6% and it’s been pegged there for higher a part of a yr now. So the USA financial system is doing fairly effectively even because it cools into the tip of the yr not simply development but in addition inflation as we communicate. The general inflation price, the underlying inflation price’s round 2.5%, maybe a bit decrease, and once more, the US is simply merely outperforming its G seven friends. What’s most vital is that previous to the pandemic, US attracted about 18 to twenty% of capital flows around the globe popping out of the pandemic. It’s greater than 30%, and one will get the sense that the mixed affect of US industrial coverage as coverage designed to help toddler industries like synthetic intelligence and to be sure that the taking part in area with respect to commerce is leveled out along with the provision and chain resilience insurance policies which have been put in place and the primary steps in direction of a extra sustainable set of environmental insurance policies all are working to draw capital from around the globe.

Joe:
Furthermore, since 2021, in our personal inner surveys, we may see a transfer by corporations to start substituting very subtle expertise for a scarcity of labor. That lack of labor was attributable to the long run demographic adjustments that had been going by way of, the grain getting old and exit of the child boomers from the workforce, after which additionally a protracted interval of funding in expertise that’s now starting to reap and features. Now, it’s fascinating, it doesn’t fairly embrace synthetic intelligence, however the level is now that that lengthy interval of funding is actually starting to repay US productiveness is up 2.7% on a yr over yr foundation. That’s the very best. For the reason that interval of 1995 to 2004, the USA comes, it’s simply outperforming, however that enchancment in productiveness, that’s the magical elixir, the key sauce if you’ll,

Joe:
That enables the financial system to develop sooner, have a decrease unemployment price and worth stability. Proper? Ought to we proceed to see this and I believe we’ll as a result of we’re simply seeing the tip of the spear round synthetic intelligence. It’s going to alter the underlying construction of not solely the USA financial system however the international financial system going ahead. There are good and nice issues taking place throughout the American financial system, and it’s good that we speak about them as a result of too many occasions the doom and gloom crew on the market have the initiative. It’s all the time simpler to sound smarter once you’re being hypercritical or declaring the shortcomings about what’s occurring available in the market or the financial system, however I received to let you know what we’re seeing right here. The baseline means that we’re going to be onwards and upwards with this financial system for numerous years, and that’s a superb factor to speak about.

Dave:
I adore it. Yeah, I imply, I really feel like we hear a number of negativity in regards to the financial system, however a lot of the information means that the US continues to be actually aggressive, even within the mild of seeing a number of recession warnings, labor market softening. I believe there are some broader traits that you simply’ve been seeing. One query I wish to ask although, is the US outperforming as a result of we’re at a interval of energy or are among the beforehand robust rivals like China simply form of fading away?

Joe:
Effectively, I believe it’s somewhat little bit of each that among the challenges to the financial system across the pandemic have simply ended, proper? The financial system’s normalizing now on a yr in the past foundation, we’re up 3.1% by way of the center a part of the yr, and that’s not going to be sustainable. We’re going to maneuver again to a development just under a 2%, proper round 1.8%, in order the financial system cools, you must count on to see demand for hiring. Cool. Keep in mind a yr in the past the unemployment price was 3.4%, okay? That’s too low. Out of 2022 into early 2023, the financial system was vulnerable to overheating, proper? The truth that we’ve been in a position to obtain that mushy touchdown, in different phrases, are nonetheless in full employment with the financial system cooling and worth stability returning means we’ve achieved the goals of the exit from the pandemic. The financial system didn’t crash. Now, I do know that there’s a giant doom and gloom crew on the market for 2 years they’ve been predicting recession in a sure level. It’s like being a damaged clock. That’s proper. Twice a day, proper? They’ll be proper finally, however it doesn’t appear to be the financial system is vulnerable to recession or shall be falling into one within the close to time period, and it’s unlucky that that discourse achieve predominance in some quarters as a result of there are rational buyers and good hardworking people who find themselves actually lacking out on what’s taking place proper now within the financial system.

Dave:
We now have to take a fast break, however extra from Joe Bruce Suela once we return. Welcome again to On the Market. Since we do discuss extra in regards to the American financial system on the present and you’re an professional within the international financial system, I’d like to simply contact on among the main storylines within the international financial system as a result of to me what you’re saying in regards to the American state of affairs is smart. The variable that makes me somewhat apprehensive is simply form of like a black swan occasion as a result of it simply looks as if there’s a lot geopolitical instability proper now. So what are the principle tales on a geopolitical international financial system degree that you simply suppose are vital as we speak?

Joe:
Effectively, before everything, it’s the function standing and dangers across the individuals’s republic of China. China for near 30 years noticed close to double digit price development on a mean foundation. Effectively, China’s REITs, what economists would name a center revenue entice, that their enterprise mannequin, that was the first driver in development modernization, huge funding in industrial, residential actual property, after which subsidizing industries change into an export oriented development mannequin have largely come to an finish. That mannequin goes to be required to alter, it’s going to want to evolve, however due to the distinctive political financial system of the PRC, you will have an authoritarian authorities on high of a market financial system beneath sure situations that may be very tough, and people situations are starting to approximate. China’s true development price’s in all probability slowing to someplace round 2%. It’s home financial system, its family tempo of consumption has slowed considerably why they’re going by way of a traditional debt and leveraging cycle altogether.

Joe:
Not too totally different from what the USA went by way of between 2007 and 2014, and sadly with the Japanese financial system went by way of over a interval of a long time beginning within the early Nineteen Nineties till very just lately, and we’re undecided how that is going to evolve. Proper now, the Chinese language home political, fiscal and financial authority appears completely reluctant to reflate the home sector. By that I imply they should switch incomes from companies to households with a purpose to get that financial system transferring in as a result of they’re unsure across the true situation of the underlying monetary sector. Furthermore, with a purpose to hold issues transferring as a result of what the Chinese language actually worry is a rise in unemployment and B, a rise inflation, they’re trying to export the burden of adjustment to its commerce companions. What meaning is the Chinese language have directed that the political authorities directed the monetary sector to reallocate threat capital to manufacturing. Proper now, China’s received an amazing oversupply of products and since they wish to make their commerce companions take in their adjustment by principally telling them, you’re going to have to simply accept a smaller share of world manufacturing as we export our surplus capability. Now, Dave, if this was 1995 and even 2005, the whole world would’ve stated, yeah, we’ll do this. Proper?

Dave:
Why would they’ve accepted that?

Joe:
As a result of on the time we might’ve thought that this was a part of binding China to an present international order that it had a stake in in order that it could not search to overturn that order.

Dave:
Clearly,

Joe:
That didn’t find yourself the best way that policymakers 30 or 40 years in the past thought. So we’re in a really totally different interval the place the foremost economies, the US, Europe, the united kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia, are clearly not going to simply accept a smaller share of world manufacturing. That’s why we’ve seen the tariffs, the commerce wars, the geopolitical tensions which have clearly spilled over. I imply, the first goal of US industrial coverage is to restrict the capability of China to imagine and set international requirements round electrical automobiles and round subtle microchips. Furthermore, it’s to guard our toddler synthetic intelligence business and quantum. So there’s rather a lot there. The 2 outs free of charge commerce are nationwide safety and toddler industries. The USA has declared each. That’s why we’ve seen a change within the construction of the worldwide financial system, capital flows, when it comes to commerce. So we’re going to be in a interval of some rigidity for a superb time over China’s over capability and its try and export its burden of adjustment to its commerce companions.

Dave:
Are you able to say somewhat bit extra about that, Joe, as a result of I’m curious what potential impacts on the US financial system there are from this case in China?

Joe:
Effectively, it’s rather a lot lower than it could’ve been numerous years in the past. Every quarter you possibly can open up what’s referred to as the ten Qs and have a look at the steadiness sheets of the banks and see their publicity to totally different economies. Over the previous variety of years, the large banks have started to cut back their publicity to PRC, and that lessens the chance that contagion from an actual disaster in China would stream by way of the monetary channel. However the level is, in case you’re a forward-looking investor and also you’re apprehensive about threat, you possibly can open up the ten Qs of the 100 or so systemically vital monetary establishments, the large banks around the globe and see what the publicity is. There’s much more transparency than you’d suppose given the neo conspiratorial discuss that masquerades is standard knowledge in some quarters.

Dave:
Obtained it. Effectively, I haven’t even heard of that, however I’m guarantee reassured a bit no less than that you simply really feel that the majority American banks or western banks are in all probability not tremendous uncovered. I’m curious although, transferring on from China, in case you suppose there’s restricted threat coming from China proper now, are there different geopolitical conditions evolving that you simply suppose do pose a much bigger threat or a much bigger alternative to the US financial system?

Joe:
Okay, so once I take into consideration the worldwide financial system, proper, as a result of my important valley Wix see American financial system, however like all people else for the reason that nice monetary disaster, you needed to change into an professional on international economics as a result of it’s an interdependent, globally intertwined built-in financial system. When you concentrate on international economics, you begin with commodities and vitality all the time and all over the place first. You then transfer to industrial manufacturing due to the tumult within the Center East, and we’re now 10 months into the newest battle between Israel and its antagonists. Effectively, you do take into consideration the worth of oil. Now my sense right here is that the USA, the Norwegians, the Latins have all stepped up manufacturing proper now. We’re awash in a sea of oil globally, and there’s extra coming on-line as a result of what’s occurring in Africa and even among the rehabilitation of among the states within the Center East. So proper now, I’m not too involved a couple of worth shock by way of the oil channel, however one all the time needs to be involved about occasions within the Center East spilling over right into a wider conflagration that entails the Israelis and the Iranians and their supporters. In order that’s the opposite main threat on the market, I believe proper now.

Dave:
Obtained it. Okay. And that threat would come to the US largely by way of oil costs,

Joe:
It by way of the oil channel. Now, it’s vital that we put this within the correct context, proper? The US is the main producer of oil on the planet now. It’s self-sufficient in the case of vitality. We really produce extra oil than we use, so we’re now exporting it. You might need seen gasoline costs this yr, Dave. They’re down nearly 9% from the height in April, and I took a have a look at wholesale gasoline futures as a result of earlier than we got here on, as a result of I believed we is perhaps speaking about this, we should always see one other 6% decline in gasoline costs, and that merely has to do with the tempo of home consumption. We change into extremely environment friendly in our home oil and vitality enterprise. The identical corporations that produce oil start to spend money on renewables a couple of decade in the past, and it’s beginning to bear fruit, however however, the worth for oil set globally, if there’s a disruption in provide of the Center East, it should hit our commerce companions and invariably that can affect us. In order that does stay to me that it’s the second greatest threat on the market of a black swan if that’s the way you wish to elevate it to the worldwide

Dave:
Financial system. Thanks for explaining that. I believe these are two international conditions that I and our viewers can wrap our heads round. So let’s simply return again to the us. You appear bullish on the US financial system. What’s your for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, what ought to we count on?

Joe:
Effectively, we count on to see long-term development like development for the second half of the yr and into subsequent yr, which means proper round 2% with some upside threat. There’s an amazing fiscal tailwind behind the US financial system having to do with the rebuilding of its infrastructure, the provision chains. We now have a type of new chip factories about 20 miles from the place I stay. You must see it, Dave. It’s incredible. You bought to go? No, I received to go. Yeah. I’ve been in a position to tour the manufacturing facility right here in Texas and the 2 out in Arizona. Cool. what it’s prefer it simply as an apart, again within the nineties, we used to play this recreation referred to as Sim Metropolis. You form of construct civilization, proper?

Dave:
Oh, I do know it. In fact,

Joe:
You may exit Tyler, Texas and watch round Tyler how civilization is being constructed from the substructure that’s being put in to help every little thing to the highways, to the townhomes, the condos, the only household residences, and all the life-style facilities which can be springing as much as help all this, proper? I’m really speaking to a agency in Europe that’s eager about investing in wealth administration in Tyler, Texas to anticipate the explosion of the growth across the constructing of those fabs. Wow. That’s why one of many components and explanation why I’m very bullish on the ahead look across the financial system, since you’re going to see not solely central Texas, not solely Phoenix, Scottsdale, however you’re going to see Ohio and upstate New York, Columbus, Ohio on the realm on Cornell and upstate New York be the recipient of funding as a result of primary choice by the USA to create resilient provide chains round probably the most superior and complicated expertise, and I’m anticipating we’re going to see extra of this second with the US unemployment price sitting round 4.3 now.

Joe:
We expect it’ll end round 4 and a half on the finish of the yr. That’s traditionally low inflation is ebbing, which meaning actual incomes are going up. For the previous 15 months, the common employees seeing a rise of their incomes over inflation. The argument we’re having with one another about grocery costs, when you account for hours labored and revenue above inflation, grocery costs, what it takes to work or to pay for every week’s of grocery costs is correct again to the place it was in 2019. Now, that’s nothing. I’m going to go stand in entrance of a college board with the PTA and inform them, proper? Folks throw eggs and tomatoes at you, they merely received’t consider you but it’s empirically true and over time, economics has a humorous method of trumping ideology and politics and that actuality will happen as a result of every family is continuing by way of the adjustment publish inflation shock differently.

Joe:
Some have already made their adjustment and moved on, others are within the midst it and others, it’s going to take some time, proper? There’s no two households which can be alike, however I’m assured that that adjustment will happen. We’ve received a dynamic financial system that’s rising. It’s changing into much less fragile by the day as we harden these provide chains, as we transfer in direction of a special steadiness when it comes to the general financial system, sure, there are dangers. There are all the time going to be challenges and there are all the time going to be issues, however to me, the financial system appears to be like prefer it’s on a way more sturdier basis than it did in 2019.

Dave:
Wow. Joe, you’re getting me fired up in regards to the American financial system. I really like this optimistic view. Time for one final fast break, however after the break, we’re going to listen to from Joe on his predictions in regards to the US financial system and the place the Fed funds price may land within the subsequent yr. Hey, buyers, let’s soar again in. You probably did say there’s dangers although, so what are the dangers that you simply see?

Joe:
Alright, effectively, we clearly have had a structural change in how and the place we work between 20 and 30% of us work from home and work from home completely. That’s brought on a difficulty in industrial actual property.

Dave:
Positive has.

Joe:
I used to be simply studying a narrative this morning about how within the main metros, there’s a juxtaposition that’s shaped within the class, a industrial actual property sector. The newer buildings with the facilities and the expertise, they’re full. They’re over capability

Dave:
Workplace house, you imply?

Joe:
Workplace house? Yeah. The older workplace house that doesn’t have that, these capabilities, there’s some actual issues. Now, one doesn’t wish to low cost the monetary exercise that’s going to go on in industrial actual property. Certainly in 2023, March, April. Keep in mind the mini disaster across the state and native banks,

Joe:
There are banks which can be going to fail. They’re going to be issues. The vast majority of these notes are held in these state and native banks, and it’s going to take some time to work by way of that. Nevertheless, it’s not a systemic threat. It’s extra of a neighborhood financial threat, however that’s a part of it. Second, there’s a wall of maturing company debt. It’s going to should be handled over the subsequent two to 3 years. It’s about $3 trillion in debt. It’s the debt that was issued on the backside of the pandemic 20 20, 20 21 when rates of interest had been very low. So consider 800 million that was issued close to 0% in actual phrases, effectively, most company money owed 5 years. We’re going to maneuver into the primary classic that’s 5 years outdated and it’s going to should be rolled over. Effectively, let’s say it was issued at 2%. Effectively, we’re going to roll that over. It’s going to be nearer to 5 to eight%. Is it going to be 800 million? No, it’s going to be extra like 500 million.

Dave:
Yeah. Can I simply soar in Joe and clarify to everybody what this implies for individuals who don’t know company debt, identical to the US can challenge bonds to lift capital companies challenge debt.

Joe:
That’s proper,

Dave:
They usually had been getting it tremendous low-cost identical to everybody else was getting tremendous low-cost debt throughout the pandemic, and it appears like what you’re saying, Joe, is that companies are going to must reissue this debt. They want the working capital, however at the next price, which I assume impacts their cashflow.

Joe:
That’s proper. So in contrast to you who may’ve purchased a home and had a 30 yr fastened mortgage, the speed received’t change till you promote it.

Dave:
Yep.

Joe:
Companies sometimes tackle debt in a 5 yr increments or much less, so each 5 years they should roll over that debt and refinance it. So let me make it actual easy. An $800 million mortgage by a big agency taken out at 5% in 2020 will seemingly be rolled over, however not at those self same phrases. It’ll in all probability be extra like 500 million at 8%, let’s say. Proper? Simply to make it simple to get your head wrapped round it, okay. Into the hole, that 300 million that must be funded, personal fairness and personal credit score will step in, which is why we all the time wish to make sure that we all know what’s occurring and the well being of personal fairness and personal credit score. That’s one thing that might trigger a slowdown in hiring and a slowdown in general financial exercise. Now, having stated that, as a result of I outlined the dangers industrial actual property and the maturity wall of debt that’s going to should be rolled over the functioning of American capital markets over the past yr has been nothing wanting vital. We simply haven’t seen an actual downside rolling over that debt within the monetary exercise from the industrial actual property sector, and it appears to be like to me with the Federal Reserve starting to embark on its price slicing cycle right here in September that we’re going to have the ability to do this too, and I believe we should always discuss somewhat bit about that price slicing cycle as a method of coming again full circle to the beginning of the present

Dave:
Earlier than we go into the speed minimize cycle, which I do wish to speak about. We’ve been listening to and speaking about on the present rather a lot, this impending adjustment correction reckoning in industrial actual property. Why has it taken so lengthy?

Joe:
Okay, so it’s in nobody’s curiosity both the individuals holding the loans or the entities which have to have interaction in a disorderly panic. Second, US financial system’s $27 trillion. It’s a giant, enormous dynamic animal. These massive sums, about 101 and a half trillion {dollars} was the estimate that needed to be rolled in CRE at the start of the yr to the mere mortal. That appears, oh my god, that’s enormous. That’s going to trigger a recession. No, it’s not. It’s merely not massive sufficient. It will probably trigger issues in sure localities the place the non-performing loans put constraints on native banks to help regional financial exercise. Yeah, I believe North Texas, proper? We will see issues slowing down in North Texas. It’s within the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Regional Survey. You may inform that the elevated interval of rates of interest mixed with the flexibility or constraints round these native banks to make loans as a result of the truth that they’re holding a big portfolio of non-performing loans or semi non-performing loans is inflicting a few of these areas to decelerate, however it’s not ample in and of itself to trigger a systemic downside or to trigger the general financial system itself to decelerate.

Joe:
I’m simply sufficiently old to recollect the financial savings and mortgage disaster of the Nineteen Eighties and Nineteen Nineties that contributed considerably to what was the tip of the large Reagan Nineteen Eighties period growth. This simply isn’t that.

Dave:
All proper. Effectively, I assume we’ll have to simply wait and see the way it performs out, however I’m glad to listen to that you simply don’t suppose it’s going to trigger some systemic shock. Final thing I wish to chat with you about right here as we speak, Joe, is what you alluded to earlier, the fed reducing cycle. Inform us what you make of the Fed’s place proper now and the way it may play out over the subsequent few years.

Joe:
Okay. On the Jackson Gap Financial Symposium, the Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell was very specific. It’s time for a coverage pivot. Rates of interest are going to begin to come down now. Proper now, the federal funds price sitting between 5.25 and 5.5%. We count on that we’re going to get a string of 25 foundation level price cuts. The danger is that they could possibly be bigger if hiring slows or there’s one thing going unsuitable within the exterior financial system that impinges on the home financial system. It’s not a lot the primary price minimize that issues or the second or third, it’s the vacation spot. Now, we expect based mostly on our, what’s referred to as estimation of the response operate of the Federal Reserve or the estimation of what’s the optimum rate of interest given prevailing situations within the financial system, will trigger the Federal Reserve to decrease that by about 200 foundation factors to round someplace between three and three.5%, and we expect they’ll get there within the second half of subsequent yr.

Joe:
That’s going to supply fairly the enhance to the home financial system. It would enable one to refinance their mortgage price in the event that they purchased a house over the past yr, yr and a half, refinance auto charges. When you’ve taken out a mortgage over the past two years, it should decrease the rate of interest cost on revolving debt. It would assist the federal authorities to roll over debt at cheaper charges. As these charges come down, you’ll see what we name the time period spectrum of curiosity. Charges from two to 5 years reset decrease. We expect the entrance finish will reset a lot decrease, and in case you’re a client, you wish to watch that 10 yr price. In fact, in case you’re in enterprise and also you want capital to broaden your corporation, you wish to focus like a laser being on what’s referred to as the stomach of the curve from two to 5 years on the whole, and that 5 yr specifically as we speak, the US 5 years buying and selling at 3.65%.

Joe:
Okay, you’re a agency. You wish to take out 100 million {dollars}. You wish to broaden manufacturing and go rent individuals. Okay, good. Do this. Why? Effectively, 3.65%, you wish to much less out the inflation price, two level a half. Which means the actual price of return is 1.15. Because the time period shifts decrease, it should value you much less to broaden your agency by way of American capital markets. That’s a essentially good factor. We’ll put a ground into the financial system, we’ll put a ceiling on high of how excessive unemployment can go, and principally, Dave, we’re all going to lastly get on with it. We’ll be capable of look again and rear view mirror and say the pandemic period is definitely over.

Dave:
Wow. You’re painted a reasonably image, Joe. I prefer it and I hope you’re proper, however you’re clearly very knowledgeable opinions right here, and I hope that for all of us that this optimistic view of a rising secure, such as you stated, dynamic American financial system is strictly what we’re going to get. Joe, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us as we speak. We’ll put hyperlinks to Joe’s analysis, his contact data within the present notes as we all the time do. Thanks for becoming a member of us as we speak, Joe.

Joe:
Thank You, Dave.It was all the time a pleasure

Dave:
In the marketplace, was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The present is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with enhancing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content material, and we wish to prolong a giant thanks to everybody at BiggerPockets for making this present doable.