The USDCAD has been trending to the upside since bottoming on October 2 close to 1.3472. The momentum over the past eight buying and selling days has taken the value as much as a excessive of 1.37826. That took the value to the low of the subsequent swing space goal between 1.3784 and 1.38036 (going again to April 2024 – see the crimson numbered circles on the chart beneath).
As we speak, the Canadian jobs information got here out stronger than anticipated, and the value of the USDCAD fell (greater CAD). The worth did transfer again beneath the 61.8% retracement of the transfer down from the August excessive. That degree is available in at 1.3745. Nevertheless, the momentum couldn’t be sustained, and the value has snapped again greater. Going ahead, it might take a transfer again beneath 61.8% retracement to provide the sellers extra consolation.
Is promoting over? What would enhance the bullish bias as soon as after the sharp transfer decrease?
Will the stronger quantity not section the Financial institution of Canada rate-cutting agenda?
Drilling to the 5-minute chart beneath, the value motion late yesterday noticed the value transfer again down to check the rising 200 bar MA (inexperienced line on the chart beneath).
IN the Asian session tdday, the value moved beneath that decrease MA line, however the momentum decrease was not sturdy. As a substitute, the value traded greater with the MA line (see inexperienced line on the chart beneath) after which moved above the 2 transferring averages and used the MA ranges as a springboard to greater ranges forward of the roles report.
When the employment information got here in stronger than anticipated, the value fell sharply beneath these transferring averages, however has since snapped again greater. The rebound has taken worth again towards and now above these transferring averages.That has the shorts scratching their heads and protecting shorts. The patrons are again in management above these MAs.
The query going ahead is can the value keep above these transferring averages?
if it will possibly, there might be some head-scratching and extra quick protecting with the degrees off the 4-hour chart as much as 1.3803. If the value, can not get above – or fails on the break above – the sellers are nonetheless “in play” and we are going to see extra draw back probing with the 100/200 bar MAs on the 5-minute chart, and the 61.8% retracement off the four-hour chart at 1.3745 as targets wanted to be damaged to extend the bearish bias.
