Proper place, proper time, proper geology: Graham Arvidson believes Australia has a singular alternative to construct a world-class vanadium battery storage and round worth chain on the again of a 50-year useful resource in arguably the world’s greatest mining jurisdiction.
Arvidson, who had a front-row view of the explosive progress in Western Australia’s lithium business over the previous decade, heads Australian Vanadium, touted by some as the corporate most probably to grow to be the world’s subsequent large-scale major vanadium producer.
The lithium house is flat now amid low costs however it spawned a A$15 billion lithium main (Pilbara Minerals; presently value about $8.7 billion) and broader WA battery-grade materials provide base previously decade. State lithium exports climbed from sub-$6 billion in 2015-2016 to greater than $18b final yr.
“I’ve labored in many of the lithium mines right here in WA and should you roll again time to 2016 most individuals couldn’t spell lithium,” says Arvidson, an IMARC 2024 Mining Highlight speaker and lead on a characteristic panel dialogue: What does a future made in Australia imply for mining?
“We’d have sat throughout a desk like we’re proper now having a dialog about value progress projections and also you’d have had one celebration saying 10% progress and possibly somebody speaking about 200% progress. And the reality is, it’s been extra excessive than that.”
The comparability highlights the difficulties nailing provide and demand, and pricing, predictions in such turbulent instances for world power, transport and manufacturing. It additionally factors to an rising market urge for food for funding and advancing world-class initiatives with the best value and danger settings the place the long-term value indicators are beneficial, as with lithium.
Australian Vanadium’s managing director sees tailwinds constructing behind the corporate’s cornerstone WA venture as vanadium’s long-term demand and value hyperlinks to metal are transcended by the metallic’s use in long-duration power storage linked to renewable energy and a large number of business and societal use instances.
“Australian Vanadium aspires to fabricate vanadium circulate batteries and is without doubt one of the few firms growing a grid-scale battery provide chain in Australia,” Perth funding agency Shaw and Companions mentioned this month.
“The Australian Power Market Operator [AEMO] forecasts that the Nationwide Electrical energy Market will shortly comply with the US and want 19GW of storage capability by 2030, rising to 43GW in 2040 and 56GW in 2050.
“Present storage capability is simply 6GW.”
Shaw says battery power system storage is the quickest rising battery demand market within the US as that market matures and length will increase.
“The working capability of battery storage within the US grew by 7.9GW in 2023, bringing the nation’s complete cumulative put in base to 17GW. In additional exact phrases, there was 7881MW of latest storage installations and 20,609MWh of latest storage capability deployed over the previous 12 months.
“In 2024, battery storage capability will develop 89%, or an additional 14.3GW, based on the US Power Data Administration, with most of that in California and Texas. Twelve US States now have grid power storage targets, reminiscent of 15GW in California by 2032 and 6GW in New York by 2030.”
In the meantime, prices per MWh have fallen 73% over the previous 10 years and are anticipated to dip additional because the business scales.
Which, in fact, is already taking place in China.
Arvidson says China added greater than 25GW hours each year of vanadium circulate battery (VFB) and vanadium electrolyte manufacturing capability final yr to help the rollout of VFB storage.
“To place that into context, that equates to 207,690 tonnes of annual vanadium demand,” he says.
Australian Vanadium goals to supply 11,200t each year, roughly 5% of the Chinese language gigafactory demand added in 2023, by way of the US$435 million venture it outlined in a 2022 feasibility examine. It’s engaged on an optimised FS after finishing a A$217m merger with Gabanintha venture neighbour Expertise Metals Australia earlier this yr.
The merger consolidated their adjoining initiatives throughout the identical orebody to provide Australian Vanadium an up to date mineral useful resource estimate of 395 million tonnes grading 0.77% V2O5, together with a higher-grade area of 173.2Mt grading 1.09%, and extra choices for lower-cost early extraction.
Vanadium’s use in batteries has grown from 1% of the market two years in the past to greater than 10% now.
“We do not have them [vanadium redox flow batteries] in Australia at scale but however China’s constructing them at unbelievable scale,” Arvidson says.
“When it comes to precise items of vanadium many of the progress is in China as a result of they’re putting in and commissioning huge vanadium circulate batteries – gigawatt-hour scale – however they’re additionally, in lockstep, then asserting all the manufacturing base beside it. So, actually giant electrolyte manufacturing services, actually giant battery manufacturing vegetation. It’s an analogous playbook in vanadium circulate batteries to what they did with lithium-ion batteries.
“Some experiences have the battery power storage market [cumulative energy storage installations] going past the terawatt-hour mark globally earlier than 2030; the query is, how a lot of it’ll be longer length know-how? Even should you take a small slice of that, it means vanadium has to double, triple, quadruple or extra when it comes to the market dimension.
“And that’s our thesis. We’ve received a tier one asset and we not solely wish to produce vanadium, we wish to take part in that worth chain as a result of it’s fairly a easy, elegant provide chain. Not like with lithium, you don’t want nickel, cobalt, manganese, and many others. You simply want vanadium.
“The electrochemical machine that may be a circulate battery is a quite simple machine.
“It’s not farfetched to suppose that total provide chain, not together with the vanadium, may be very simply scalable from normal industrial parts. You don’t want pre-precursor cathode lively supplies … and also you don’t want packets and meeting and every thing else. You simply want vanadium and electrolyte.
“One factor that China cannot affect is that in Australia we will be globally aggressive in producing vanadium oxides and changing that to electrolyte. Vanadium oxides being globally aggressive is a operate of geology principally and we’ve got actually good geology right here.
“We’ve a 50-year mine life with very constant geology. So the amount and high quality of vanadium oxides is in our management and it’s uniquely higher than plenty of gamers on the market as a result of we’ve got a VTM [vanadiferous titanomagnetite] deposit with very constant geometallurgy. We are able to over 50 years produce a 99.5% purity V205, which is superb for making electrolytes.
“Our C1 value might be US$4.40 a pound, based mostly on the [2022] BFS. Once you convert to electrolyte, which we’re already doing right here cost-effectively, the electrolyte with the oxides in it’s 60%-plus of the worth of the battery. So, 60% of the worth of the batteries simply by making the electrolyte will stay competitively advantageous should you can construct out the manufacturing, which is what our core mission is.
“Our perception is that you may at the least assemble the batteries regionally.
“The first step is the decrease danger entry level the place you import the parts – tanks, pumps, stacks, valves, devices – all of the stuff that we’ve got all of the commerce abilities to construct and assemble.
“The subsequent step past that, if you wish to transfer past that, and we expect it may possibly grow to be value aggressive, is extra of an automatic manufacturing system. In that situation you are most likely importing robotically made stacks from China or Japan.
“To get there you want scale, which China has. However can you determine a aggressive business right here? Our present considering is completely. At a minimal, you’ve received 60% native content material with the vanadium alone.
“In case you have a look at lithium the overwhelming majority of the lithium we export is spodumene. Over 90% of the worth add is completed abroad and most of that’s in China, usually. After which we purchase again gigawatt hours of lithium-ion batteries.
“I feel so long as it’s economically compelling, which vanadium circulate batteries are for lengthy length power storage, why would we import Chinese language lithium-ion batteries after we can construct batteries regionally to supply the bottom levelised value of storage?
“The price of delivering energy from these batteries is decrease than lithium-ion. The batteries final 50 years. They will cycle infinite instances. They don’t catch fireplace. And so they do not degrade.
“The true energy of vanadium circulate batteries is that they don’t essentially change lithium ion, they increase it. They’re simply a lot, a lot better and extra financial at lengthy length storage.
“So I feel there’s a very compelling story right here. Why isn’t it taking place already? It’s simply because nowhere in Australia but are we tendering eight-hour batteries, however it’s coming.
“The remainder of the world is making that long-duration transition. They want one thing to try this.
“In locations like Australia, pumped hydro isn’t understanding too nicely. In WA there’s actually nowhere to do it.
“However you want plenty of completely different applied sciences deploying to get this transition to occur.
“AEMO is saying the medium-to-long-duration storage capability will develop to 120GWhr by 2040; rising at 6GWhr each year. That is the long-duration class that lithium ion isn’t good at.
“Once more, to place it in context, our mine would do about 1.1GWhr-equivalent battery capability when it comes to vanadium items. Even when all of our vanadium items simply went into Australian batteries we’re nonetheless solely one-sixth of the entire Australian progress.
“If there was an ideal jurisdiction on the planet for me to kickstart this, it’s WA. If there may be an extremely financial method to make use of photo voltaic it’s to place 12-hour batteries with it.
“And essentially the most financial, recyclable, round financial system, non-flammable native content material for that battery is vanadium.”
Hear extra from
