‘American politics issues to Canada as a result of American politics have an effect on American insurance policies — and insurance policies may have a major influence on Canada’
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BANFF — Albertans don’t must mud off the historical past books to see how a lot change can arrive for Canada when a brand new president takes energy south of the border.
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 led to the tumultuous renegotiation of the North American Free Commerce Settlement. Joe Biden’s victory 4 years later triggered the termination of the Keystone XL pipeline — and a $1.3-billion loss for Alberta taxpayers.
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In the present day, as polls present a decent race for the White Home, the Nov. 5 election could have penalties, no matter whether or not it’s Trump or Kamala Harris who wins the competition.
“If the final two elections are any indication, this election will come all the way down to roughly 100,000 votes or much less, unfold out over only a handful of states,” David Wilkins, former U.S. ambassador to Canada, mentioned throughout a panel dialogue on the annual International Enterprise Discussion board.
With 40 days to go, the race for president is a toss-up, whereas the U.S. Senate is leaning towards the Republicans, and the Home of Representatives is leaning towards the Democrats, he mentioned.
“This might be one of many closest races ever that we’ve had,” Wilkins mentioned in an interview.
“It does make a distinction. American politics issues to Canada as a result of American politics have an effect on American insurance policies — and insurance policies may have a major influence on Canada.”
Through the marketing campaign, Trump has promised to impose a ten per cent tariff on all imported merchandise if he wins. Such a transfer may have important implications for a trade-focused province similar to Alberta, if Canada doesn’t win an exemption from such a levy.
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Alberta exported $156 billion value of products south final 12 months, with oil and gasoline making up greater than 80 per cent of that complete.
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As president, Trump vowed to renegotiate the unique NAFTA settlement, which led to the brand new Canada-United States-Mexico Settlement (CUSMA). That deal comes up for a compulsory joint overview in 2026.
“If Trump wins, we all know he’s an unpredictable counterparty, to say the least. The final time we had been renegotiating NAFTA, he imposed tariffs on Canadian metal and aluminum for nationwide safety causes,” former deputy prime minister John Manley mentioned in an interview earlier than the panel.
“When the invoice got here to approve the deal that was negotiated, one of many few senators to vote in opposition to it was Sen. Harris. So, we now have our arms full with the renewal of the commerce settlement, whichever means it goes.”
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Former premier Jason Kenney mentioned Canadians ought to look ahead to any acceleration of bipartisan American protectionism within the presidential and congressional races, which may floor in points similar to Purchase America, the softwood lumber dispute or Trump’s tariff plans.
“It might be perilous instances for what’s by far our most essential buying and selling relationship,” he mentioned in an interview.
For Alberta, vitality can be a crucial file to observe; Canada is the biggest provider of overseas oil to the U.S.
Primarily based on Trump’s document and remarks, his administration could be “friendlier to fossil fuels and manufacturing of North American vitality, and friendlier to pipelines,” though it would rescind a few of the clear vitality breaks adopted by Biden, mentioned Wilkins, who was appointed ambassador by former president George W. Bush.
Conversely, he expects a Harris administration would persist with the inexperienced vitality incentives within the U.S. Inflation Discount Act, however wouldn’t be as receptive to maximizing oil and gasoline manufacturing.
Wilkins is unsure if a Trump victory would revive the Keystone XL (KXL) undertaking or an analogous pipeline, noting it’s unclear if any firm would try to pitch such a growth, given the political and regulatory complexities.
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Kenney, whose provincial authorities invested in KXL to see development began — earlier than Biden yanked its allow in 2021 — believes the financial rationale for a significant cross-border oil pipeline nonetheless is sensible.
“If we’re ever going to maneuver ahead with any new main greenfield oilsands initiatives, in order that we will maintain or improve our manufacturing in the long run, we’re going to want extra egress — and the likeliest clients are the US by means of some model of Keystone XL,” he mentioned.
“That is one thing that governments may de-risk in the identical means Ottawa did with the Trans Mountain enlargement, and the federal government of Alberta may play a management position in that.”
Such an thought may see a Crown company fashioned to maneuver the undertaking ahead, opening up the method for a midstream firm to bid on developing it, he added.
Nevertheless, Manley famous undertaking proponent TC Power has turned the web page on Keystone XL. And he doubts one other firm would threat making such an funding.
“The 4 years of the Trump administration wasn’t sufficient to get it constructed. So, it takes a very long time.”
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After which there’s the tariff speak.
Carlo Dade, the Canada West Basis’s director of commerce and commerce infrastructure, famous a world tariff proposal being floated by some U.S. think-tanks could be unprecedented — if adopted by Trump — as it might begin at 10 per cent and climb by 5 per cent yearly for every year the U.S. runs a commerce deficit.
“I don’t assume they are going to implement the (world) tariff however they are going to have scared everybody to loss of life with the specter of the tariff, after which it’s Trump’s favorite recreation . . . Let’s Make a Deal,” Dade mentioned in an interview.
As for a Harris administration, he doesn’t assume a lot would change for Canada from the previous 4 years.
Kenney mentioned Canada wants to observe the U.S. panorama rigorously after the election, together with key information similar to immigration and nationwide defence.
Federal and provincial governments ought to be upping their diplomatic recreation, participating with political and financial leaders past Washington, D.C., to press Canada’s case.
“On the finish of the day, it’s nonetheless probably the most profitable financial relationship in human historical past, with deep historic and human ties,” he added.
“So one’s obtained to be optimistic concerning the sturdiness of the connection. You’ll be able to’t take it without any consideration.”
Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.
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