Flying by helicopter over the Greenland ice sheet, I’m struck by its huge expanse of whiteness. However as I look nearer I see that a lot of the ice is dotted with vibrant blue swimming pools. These swimming pools replicate a startling actuality: one of many world’s largest ice cap is melting.
I’ve come to the Arctic to see the melting ice cap and the shrinking of the huge Jakobshavn glacier up shut. Standing among the many mud and gravel left by the retreating glacier, I’m face-to-face with our local weather future. That future has arrived prior to anybody predicted: scientists in Greenland are seeing the ice sheet soften at a tempo anticipated 40 years from now, not this summer season.
What occurs within the Arctic doesn’t keep within the Arctic. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which covers about 80 % of the world’s largest island, might assist increase world sea ranges as a lot as eight ft by the tip of the century. That’s why the slogan of the Rising Seas Institute, which organized my journey, is “Greenland’s Glaciers Change the World.”
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As a former deputy undersecretary of protection, I can’t assist however consider the implications for our nation’s safety.
Think about that it’s 2050, and seas are a foot greater than in the present day. Cities from Miami to Mumbai try to adapt and rebuild their coastal infrastructure. Many have already moved to greater floor inland if they’ll afford to take action—extra probably in Miami than Mumbai.
China and Russia nonetheless pose threats to America’s safety, and our navy forces are nonetheless getting ready to defend Taiwan and deter additional Russian aggression throughout Europe and elsewhere. In the meantime, navy bases, notably navy bases on the coast, are struggling to make sure that ships, submarines and fighter jets can nonetheless carry out their missions when their amenities are routinely flooded. (That’s already occurring in Norfolk, Va., dwelling to the world’s largest navy advanced, which features a NATO headquarters.)
Excessive climate occasions corresponding to hurricanes and typhoons happen extra continuously and with extra devastating influence. Then an excellent hurricane knocks out Taiwan’s infrastructure, stopping Taiwan and the U.S. from precisely perceiving China’s strikes—not realizing whether or not it’s a storm-induced outage or a large cyberattack.
America’s navy outposts within the Pacific have been compromised by rising sea ranges, leaving some bases incapable of performing their missions. On the identical time, Russia is making the most of an more and more open Arctic to put declare to this new transport route and the power and mineral riches it incorporates.
These situations, and others like them, maintain America’s generals and admirals up at evening. They know, as do their civilian protection planners, that defending our nation is extra sophisticated within the period of local weather change. They acknowledge local weather as a danger that should be managed, very similar to a nuclear assault by a rogue energy. They usually know that local weather change amplifies different, long-standing dangers. That’s why I coined the phrase “menace multiplier,” in 2007 when working with the primary group of American generals and admirals to evaluate the nationwide safety implications of local weather change.
We knew, even then, that rising sea ranges, excessive climate occasions, extended droughts, melting sea ice, collapsing permafrost and lethal warmth would pose dangers to America’s safety. Since that point America’s navy and lots of others around the globe have come to understand that they ignore local weather threats at their peril.
Whereas we’re not, as a nation, adequately ready for the dangers of local weather change, the U.S. navy in the present day is main the best way. From climate-proofing bases with extra resilient buildings, docks and runways, to making sure that troops can function in greater temperatures, the U.S. and lots of NATO militaries are getting ready for local weather dangers.
On the identical time, the protection sector is altering the best way it makes use of power—not solely, and even primarily, to scale back emissions of greenhouse gases—however to enhance navy effectiveness. We realized the arduous method in Iraq and Afghanistan that trucking gasoline to the entrance price troopers’ and marines’ lives as their convoys had been hit by improvised explosive units (IEDs) planted by terrorists. At this time’s technological improvements, from higher batteries to renewables, energy our forces on the entrance with out lengthy provide strains of gasoline, typically procured from our adversaries.
At dwelling, navy bases have launched clear power initiatives, because the navy, power corporations and native officers acknowledge alternatives to enhance power resiliency by microgrids, higher batteries, superior nuclear power and lower-carbon applied sciences.
Although navy clear power and local weather efforts received’t cease the Greenland ice sheet from melting, they present how we are able to handle local weather dangers for the longer term.
First we should observe the proof. Protection choices are based mostly on science and cautious danger evaluation. As warmth waves, flooding and wildfires turn into extra frequent and extreme, protection planners are factoring these local weather realities into future methods and plans. All of society should do the identical.
Second we have to put together in the present day for tomorrow’s threats. From making coastal infrastructure extra resilient to making sure our troops are protected in hotter temperatures, the navy is aware of that well being and readiness go hand in hand. Civilians deserve the identical foresight.
Lastly, just like the navy, we should speed up the transition to cleaner power sources. Along with slowing the tempo of local weather change, adopting clear power will make sure that the usstays on the forefront of innovation in a world more and more untethered to fossil fuels.
By taking a clear-eyed view of local weather dangers and clear power alternatives, the navy is getting ready in the present day to defend America tomorrow. If civilian society does the identical, we are able to maintain our nation safer in a warmer, extra harmful world.
That is an opinion and evaluation article, and the views expressed by the creator or authors should not essentially these of Scientific American.
