President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on the straightforward message that he’ll repair what he sees because the nation’s issues: the border, inflation, housing costs, well being care.
After Trump received the 2024 election, we requested PolitiFact readers to ship us their questions on his marketing campaign guarantees. Most have been about taxes, immigration, abortion, the Inexpensive Care Act, Social Safety and Medicare.
Trump and Republican congressional leaders seem poised to give attention to immigration and financial guarantees. Republicans may have a Senate majority and, pending a couple of uncalled races, are additionally anticipated to have a slender Home majority.
We tracked and rated 100 guarantees throughout Trump’s 2024 marketing campaign. Some hinge on conditions not fully inside his management — resembling his promise to finish the Russia-Ukraine warfare inside 24 hours of taking workplace.
Throughout Trump’s first presidency, he broke about half his marketing campaign guarantees, stored about one quarter and for the remaining achieved a compromise.
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We requested the Trump marketing campaign about his 2024 guarantees, together with his time-frame for telling the general public his priorities for the start of his time period. The marketing campaign didn’t reply our questions, however did ship a quick assertion.
@politifact PolitiFact has been monitoring U.S presidents’ marketing campaign guarantees for 16 years. Right here’s how we’ll do it as Donald Trump prepares for a second time period. #trump #promise #secondterm #politifact #factchecking ♬ unique sound – PolitiFact
“The American folks re-elected President Trump by a convincing margin giving him a mandate to implement the guarantees he made on the marketing campaign path,” transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stated. “He’ll ship.”
Financial system
Reader: “Does Trump plan any tax breaks for middle-income People? Any little one credit?”
Trump’s plan to resume his 2017 tax invoice wouldn’t present new tax cuts a lot as forestall a pointy tax escalation that may in any other case have hit if the regulation expired on schedule in 2025. Trump has not pledged to develop the kid tax credit score. In March 2023, he did float a “child bonus” of money for households with newborns, however didn’t repeat this concept later within the marketing campaign.
Trump promised to finish taxation on suggestions, which might have an effect on about 2.5% of employees. Trump additionally stated he’d finish taxation of Social Safety, additional time pay and automotive mortgage curiosity. All of those insurance policies would require congressional motion.
Nonetheless, Trump has additionally pledged to enact a ten% to twenty% across-the-board import tariff. If he follows by way of, the worth improve on shopper items “might greater than offset the advantages” of Trump’s different proposed tax adjustments, Garrett Watson, a Tax Basis senior coverage analyst, stated.
Reader: “Does Trump have any plans to cut back the price of housing and leases?”
The one promise of Trump’s that addresses housing is his concept to create “freedom cities” on federal land. It’s unclear whether or not these may very well be constructed rapidly sufficient to have any fast, measurable impact on the U.S. housing provide.
However consultants say one Trump promise might make housing much more costly: tighter immigration controls and mass deportations.
Deporting immigrants who’re within the nation illegally and limiting immigrants legally coming into the nation “dangers doing severe harm to the availability aspect of housing,” Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a Columbia Enterprise College actual property and finance professor, stated. “Some trades like roofing, masonry, and drywall set up are extremely reliant on immigrant labor. There are persistent labor shortages in plumbing and electrical work that immigrants assist mitigate.”
Reader: “Trump has stated he would slap Mexico with a 25% tariff. I dwell in Arizona and share of our produce is from Mexico. How will this have an effect on meals and tequila costs?”
For grocery prices, consultants stated the impact on meals costs will hinge on the size of the tariffs Trump decides to impose and whether or not he permits carve-outs for sure sectors. If the tariffs are broad and deep, they may elevate meals costs.
“Revenue margins for meals are very low,” so, the chance that producers would take up the elevated prices quite than passing them alongside to shoppers “wouldn’t be sustainable,” Ross E. Burkhart, a Boise State College political scientist and commerce specialist, stated.
U.S. meals producers “can’t rapidly elevate their manufacturing of meals to offset the demand for essential merchandise,” Burkhart stated. With constant demand however smaller provide, costs would rise.
Tariffs on imported agricultural inputs, from tractors to fertilizer, would contribute individually to larger meals costs, Joseph V. Balagtas, a Purdue College agricultural economist, stated.
Lastly, Trump’s proposed mass deportations and stricter immigration limits would hamper farmers, who depend on immigrant employees. Much less labor means extra crop spoilage and better costs, Burkhart stated.
As for tequila, its value “will rise with a tariff, and undoubtedly, so will the price of a margarita,” Burkhart stated.
Immigration
Reader: “Inform me extra about this mass deportation plan. Who can he deport? Through what authorized & logistical mechanisms?”
Trump promised “to hold out the biggest home deportation operation in American historical past,” however he hasn’t detailed plans or defined how he can pay for it. He stated he would start by deporting criminals; that’s not a brand new concept — memos underneath President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama referred to as for a similar.
Trump stated he’ll enlist the assistance of native regulation enforcement and the Nationwide Guard, however he can anticipate resistance from Democratic-led states and cities.
Migrants deported from the U.S. stroll into Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on March 23, 2021. (AP)
In April, he instructed Time journal that constructing mass deportation camps and utilizing the U.S. navy weren’t out of the query. Tom Homan, whom Trump named “border czar,” instructed Fox Information in a Nov. 11 interview that office raids can be a part of the technique. NBC Information, citing unnamed sources, reported that the Trump administration goals to double the present 41,000 immigration detention beds for migrants within the short-term whereas they await deportation. NBC reported that choices additionally embrace utilizing personal prisons that aren’t full.
Immigration consultants have instructed PolitiFact that mass deportation efforts would seemingly fail due to considerations over price and constitutionality. The American Immigration Council estimated the price of a mass deportation plan at $88 billion a yr, for a complete price of $967.9 billion over greater than a decade.
Reader: “How will Trump repeal birthright citizenship?”
Trump failed throughout his first presidency to meet his promise to finish folks’s proper to routinely have U.S. citizenship once they’re born within the U.S., no matter their dad and mom’ immigration standing. Authorized consultants instructed us that makes an attempt to finish birthright citizenship would immediate a courtroom battle and will require a constitutional modification.
Abortion
Reader: “What insurance policies does Trump plan to enact instantly relating to abortion?”
Trump has neither promised nor introduced plans to enact abortion insurance policies. Since April, he has stated he believes abortion laws needs to be “left to the states” and instructed reporters he wouldn’t signal a nationwide ban.
In August, Trump instructed CBS Information he wouldn’t use the Comstock Act — a nineteenth century regulation that bans mailing “obscene” supplies — to ban mailing abortion drugs.
Throughout his first presidency, Trump endorsed a 20-week nationwide abortion ban that Home Republicans backed. Earlier than he adopted his leave-it-to-the-states method in 2024’s marketing campaign, Trump floated help for 15- or 16-week federal abortion bans.
Trump’s first administration blocked organizations that present abortion providers from receiving sure federal funds. Biden overturned the directive, however the incoming Trump administration might revert to the coverage.
Well being care
Reader: “May Trump repeal the Inexpensive Care Act?”
Trump broke his 2016 marketing campaign promise to repeal the Inexpensive Care Act. Up to now yr, he has stated he won’t strive once more to repeal it, however he and Congress might change it considerably
To offset tax cuts he’s anticipated to make, Trump would seemingly have to contemplate chopping Medicaid and the Inexpensive Care Act market, stated Cynthia Cox, an ACA knowledgeable at KFF, a well being coverage analysis group.
A person walks by a well being care insurance coverage workplace July 27, 2017, in Hialeah, Fla. (AP)
Trump’s administration will face a choice subsequent yr on whether or not to again an extension of enhanced premium subsidies for the well being regulation’s insurance policy. With out the improved subsidies, steep premium will increase are projected. And with out the improved subsidies, the present 8% uninsured charge, which is close to a file low, would nearly definitely rise.
Reader: “How will Social Safety be affected?”
Trump promised to not change the Social Safety retirement age or cut back profit ranges.
If he retains these guarantees, this system would proceed with out adjustments for the following few years.
Nonetheless, Trump’s total proposed fiscal insurance policies, resembling tax breaks, would speed up Social Safety’s insolvency by roughly three years, from 2034 to 2031, Committee for a Accountable Federal Price range projections present. This is able to lead to giant, across-the-board cuts in beneficiary funds, beginning six years from now. The committee estimates a 33% minimize in advantages in 2035 except the retirement age or taxes are raised or advantages are minimize by a smaller quantity; that’s up from the 23% minimize at present projected.
LGBTQ+
Reader: “Does Trump help same-sex marriage?”
As many politicians from each main political events did, Trump modified his stance on same-sex marriage. In 2015, Trump stated, “I believe the establishment of marriage needs to be between a person and a girl.” However shortly after he was elected in 2016, he described the problem as “settled” by the U.S. Supreme Court docket.
In 2015, the U.S. Supreme Court docket ruling in Obergefell vs. Hodges meant that same-sex marriage grew to become authorized nationwide. Earlier than the 5-4 ruling, about three dozen states allowed same-sex marriage.
Reader: “What impression might (Trump’s) administration have on transgender (well being) care?”
Trump opposes youth entry to gender-affirming care. He stated he would ask Congress to go a regulation “prohibiting little one sexual mutilation in all 50 states.” This yr, a number of such congressional payments didn’t turn out to be regulation. Consultants have instructed PolitiFact it’s inaccurate to characterize gender-affirming surgical procedures as “mutilation.”
The U.S. Supreme Court docket will hear arguments Dec. 4 in United States v. Skrmetti in regards to the legality of a Tennessee invoice that prohibits gender-affirming look after minors. A ruling is anticipated in 2025’s first half and will have an effect on the legality of proposed future federal actions.
Elana Redfield, an LGBTQ+ authorized points knowledgeable at UCLA’s Williams Institute, stated Trump is prone to rescind a Biden administration rule that categorizes many denials of gender-affirming care as prohibited discrimination.
Mission 2025
Reader: “(How) does Mission 2025 work into (Trump’s) plan?”
Mission 2025 is a 900-page coverage doc written by conservative coverage consultants, lots of whom have ties to Trump’s first administration. Trump has distanced himself from the plan.
A few of Mission 2025’s coverage objectives overlap with Trump’s marketing campaign guarantees, resembling eliminating the federal Schooling Division, reinstating a ban on transgender folks serving within the navy, setting up a southern border wall and reclassifying federal employees to make them simpler to fireside.
A Mission 2025 fan is seen Aug. 14, 2023, within the group’s tent on the Iowa State Truthful in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP)
However there are different Mission 2025 concepts that Trump didn’t personally espouse. For instance, Mission 2025 had pages of steered adjustments — lots of them obscure — for the Nationwide Climate Service and the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We rated claims that Mission 2025 needs to do away with the 2 companies Half True, and we discovered no such proposals on Trump’s points web page on his marketing campaign web site.
“There’s 0% likelihood that something in Mission 2025 associated to NOAA or climate will ever be thought-about or applied,” Ryan Maue wrote on X.. Maue is a meteorologist who briefly served as NOAA’s chief scientist underneath Trump, The Washington Publish reported.
Schooling
Reader: “What’s going to occur to public colleges?”
Throughout his marketing campaign, Trump adopted the lead of a technology of conservative activists who’ve referred to as for abolishing the Schooling Division, but it surely has by no means occurred. The division supplies about 10% of Ok-12 budgets nationally, enforces legal guidelines that have an effect on funding for particular training and low-income college students and oversees the $1.6 trillion federal pupil mortgage program.
If Trump doesn’t get rid of the division, different choices might embrace eliminating applications, eradicating profession bureaucrats or proposing tighter budgets.
Michael J. Petrilli, president of the conservative Thomas B. Fordham Institute and a Trump critic, instructed PolitiFact that Trump seemingly may have little direct impression on training coverage, on condition that the problem shouldn’t be a prime precedence for him. Petrilli doesn’t see Congress jettisoning the Schooling Division, however he stated there may very well be notable oblique results on Ok-12 colleges. For instance, Petrilli stated that Trump’s deportation plans elevate questions on whether or not the federal authorities will educate k-12 kids in detention.
Petrilli stated, “Who’s going to face up such colleges? Pay for them?”
PolitiFact Employees Writers Grace Abels Samantha Putterman and Maria Ramirez Uribe contributed to this report.
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