Following president-elect Donald Trump’s decisive election victory, there are certain to be vital knock-on results for Canada.
Whereas this will likely be Trump’s second go-around within the Oval Workplace, and the second with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in workplace in Canada, the world appears to be like very completely different than it did 4 years in the past.
Right here’s a have a look at the completely different areas wherein a second Trump presidency could have an effect on Canadians now.
Financial system
Financial system
It’s unclear which election guarantees Trump will implement as soon as he’s again in workplace, however his pledge to place in place across-the-board tariffs of at-least 10 per cent has triggered some concern amongst specialists.
A report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce final month “presents a stark warning” of protectionist insurance policies in the US, and concludes that Trump’s tariffs would negatively affect each nations’ economies.
The difficulty would change into even worse, based on the report, if Canada retaliates with levies of its personal.
The report additionally particulars damaging impacts on a number of U.S. states and Canadian provinces particularly, wherein the opposite nation is its largest buying and selling companion, specifically Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, Manitoba, and New Brunswick. South of the border, Montana, Michigan, Illinois, and Texas depend on commerce with Canada for vital percentages of the state financial system.
Ian Lee, an affiliate professor on the Sprott Faculty of Enterprise at Carleton College, informed CP24 on Wednesday morning: “The result goes to be overwhelmingly damaging, and I say that analytically and empirically.”
“It’s going to reveal itself by way of the greenback,” he mentioned. “We not solely export one-third of our GDP, we import one-third of our GDP. We import large quantities.”
“When that greenback tanks, as I’m predicting it’ll, that’s going to drive up the price of meals we import together with John Deere tractors, computer systems, et cetera,” he additionally mentioned.
U.S.-based coverage advisor John Dickerman, nevertheless, pointed to the commerce and vitality sectors, particularly, as ones that would current alternatives throughout Trump’s second time period.
“The very first thing that popped into my thoughts is, the place are the potential alternatives for alignment between the US and Canada and a second Trump presidency? And I believe that is one thing that within the enterprise group we’re notably fascinated by eager about,” Dickerman mentioned in an interview with CTV Information. He’s the vice-president, United States, for the Enterprise Council of Canada.
“(Commerce and the vitality sector) are areas the place friction exists between the US and Canada, no matter who’s within the White Home,” he mentioned. “However a method ahead on negotiating alternatives is definitely potential.”
He additionally cautioned towards making assumptions about Trump’s commerce, financial, and vitality insurance policies earlier than the brand new administration begins making selections and bulletins.
“I believe we have to wait and see precisely what the financial and commerce workforce appears to be like like,” he mentioned. “Will holdovers from the earlier Trump administration fill particular roles? I think the reply will likely be sure in some areas and no in others, and that can give us a really eager understanding of precisely what technique we have to make use of going ahead.”
“However I believe optimism is essential,” he additionally mentioned.
Commerce
Commerce
With Trump heading right into a second time period as president, Canada-U.S. commerce is more likely to be underneath the microscope. Each nations are the opposite’s largest buying and selling companion, with province-to-state agreements additionally contributing considerably to commerce and funding.
In line with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce report, if Trump introduces the blanket 10-per cent tariff on all imports he’s promised, and Canada responds in sort, Canadian incomes and productiveness would each fall.
The ensuing commerce struggle, the report continues, may price about $1,100 in foregone revenue yearly for individuals on either side of the border.
Canada’s Business Minister François-Philippe Champagne — a member of the federal authorities’s so-called Group Canada initiative — was requested Tuesday about Trump’s tariff plans.
Whereas he didn’t reply to the tariffs query, Champagne had this to say in regards to the change in Canada-U.S. relations for the reason that Liberals took workplace: “Right now, our provide chains are extra built-in than ever in key strategic locations. You are speaking about important minerals, you are speaking semiconductors, and then you definitely speak about a progress agenda for North America.”
Dickerman informed CTV Information that as a result of Canada has already negotiated commerce and tariffs with the earlier Trump administration, it “isn’t essentially able of weak point.”
“The true key will likely be whether or not or not the personal sector and the general public sector in Canada can come collectively and work cooperatively underneath negotiating alternative with the Trump administration,” he mentioned.
Early in his first presidency, Trump additionally triggered what grew to become a high-drama renegotiation of the North American Free Commerce Settlement, and now he is vowed to make the most of the 2026 overview clause stitched into the revised deal, threatening to re-open the settlement for re-negotiation.
That has put sectors with deeply built-in provide chains on alert.
“He is saying to the world on day one, we will put a ten per cent tariff on every thing. That runs counter to … our free commerce settlement,” mentioned Automotive Elements Producers’ Affiliation president Flavio Volpe. “However I believe we have to take them severely. We have to show, as soon as once more, that half of the vehicles made on this nation are made by American automotive corporations, and half of the components that are available in to assemble two million vehicles come from American vegetation, and 60 per cent of the uncooked materials come from American sources.”
“So as soon as once more, Canada and the U.S. are so properly built-in, it would not be a very good transfer,” Volpe mentioned.
Political relations
Political relations
To organize for any eventuality on this election, the Canadian authorities introduced a “Group Canada engagement technique” final January, “to advertise and defend Canada’s pursuits.”
That method is led by Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman, International Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Champagne, and Commerce Minister Mary Ng.
“The friendship between Canada and the U.S. is the envy of the world,” Trudeau mentioned in a submit on social media Wednesday morning. “I do know President Trump and I’ll work collectively to create extra alternative, prosperity, and safety for each of our nations.”
Canadian politicians had been fast to congratulate Trump on his election win on Wednesday, and all have insisted the federal authorities is ready for a second Trump time period. Trump, in the meantime, has notably levied a number of criticisms at Canada, Trudeau’s authorities, and the prime minister particularly, up to now.
Trump has beforehand taken intention at Trudeau for being “two confronted,” “weak” and a “far-left lunatic.”
The connection between the 2 deteriorated after the G7 assembly in Charlevoix, Que., in 2018, “and didn’t get better,” Carleton College political scientist Aaron Ettinger informed CTVNews.ca in an e mail this summer season.
Following these conferences, Trudeau mentioned at a press convention that Canada wouldn’t be “pushed round” by the U.S. within the face of “insulting” aluminum and metal tariffs. Seemingly in response, Trump turned to social media to put in writing that Trudeau “acted so meek and gentle” throughout the summit.
Freeland tried to guarantee anxious Canadians on Wednesday, pointing to the Trudeau authorities’s earlier expertise navigating a Trump presidency.
“I need to say with utter sincerity and conviction to Canadians that Canada will likely be completely high quality,” she mentioned.
“We’ve a powerful relationship with the US. We’ve a powerful relationship with President Trump and his workforce,” Freeland continued. “I’ve actual confidence that Canada goes to return collectively and face this second… We have carried out it earlier than.”
Border
Border
Whereas Trump’s first time period was marked by the now-infamous building of a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico, this time round, he’s promised mass deportations of unlawful migrants as a part of a large-scale immigration crackdown.
Former U.S. ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft — who served from 2017-2019 underneath Trump throughout his first time period — informed CTV’s Query Interval host Vassy Kapelos final week that Canada ought to put together for a lot of of those that are deported to go north.
“I believe it’s important to perceive that day one, Donald Trump goes to close our southern border down, she mentioned, including “all of those unlawful immigrants, the entire terrorists, the entire drug traffickers, the drug cartels, the human traffickers,” are “going to flee to Canada.”
“As a result of they know that after Donald Trump involves workplace, they’re out of right here, so that they’ll be fleeing over the northern border,” she additionally mentioned.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller mentioned he’ll proceed to make sure Canada has “an immigration system that’s disciplined, that’s managed.”
If Trump makes good on his immigration guarantees, Canada may additionally see a surge of asylum claims, amid potential elevated curiosity amongst People in transferring north.
Defence
Defence
An space wherein Canada has lengthy confronted criticism from a number of allies, not solely the US, is its defence spending.
Canada has lengthy confronted strain from allies to fulfill the NATO army alliance’s goal of spending two per cent of GDP on defence. Whereas about two-thirds of the group’s members will accomplish that this 12 months, Canada doesn’t plan to till 2032.
In line with Craft, that date is “not adequate,” and the federal authorities must spend extra, and sooner, as soon as Trump is again in workplace.
“I imagine that Canada must get up and perceive that after you’re employed from inside, and also you strengthen, you should have no higher good friend than the US underneath a Trump presidency, as a result of we have now a confirmed document,” she mentioned on CTV’s Query Interval this week.
“Donald Trump, when he says he expects individuals to pay their fair proportion, they’ll,” Craft added.
Trump, in the meantime, has threatened a number of instances to drag the U.S. out of NATO, and mentioned earlier this 12 months that if he grew to become president as soon as once more, the US wouldn’t defend member nations that don’t meet the spending goal. NATO’s Article 5 outlines the precept of collective defence, and that an assault on one member nation is taken into account an assault on all.
With recordsdata from CTV Information’ Rachel Aiello, Menna Elnaka, and Daniel Otis
