Following president-elect Donald Trump’s decisive election victory, there are certain to be important knock-on results for Canada.
Whereas this might be Trump’s second go-around within the Oval Workplace, and the second with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in workplace in Canada, the world appears to be like very totally different than it did 4 years in the past.
Right here’s a take a look at the totally different areas by which a second Trump presidency could have an effect on Canadians now.
Economic system
Economic system
It’s unclear which election guarantees Trump will implement as soon as he’s again in workplace, however his pledge to place in place across-the-board tariffs of at-least 10 per cent has precipitated some concern amongst specialists.
A report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce final month “provides a stark warning” of protectionist insurance policies in america, and concludes that Trump’s tariffs would negatively influence each international locations’ economies.
The difficulty would turn out to be even worse, based on the report, if Canada retaliates with levies of its personal.
The report additionally particulars adverse impacts on a number of U.S. states and Canadian provinces particularly, by which the opposite nation is its largest buying and selling accomplice, particularly Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, Manitoba, and New Brunswick. South of the border, Montana, Michigan, Illinois, and Texas depend on commerce with Canada for important percentages of the state financial system.
Ian Lee, an affiliate professor on the Sprott Faculty of Enterprise at Carleton College, instructed CP24 on Wednesday morning: “The result goes to be overwhelmingly adverse, and I say that analytically and empirically.”
“It’ll reveal itself by means of the greenback,” he stated. “We not solely export one-third of our GDP, we import one-third of our GDP. We import enormous quantities.”
“When that greenback tanks, as I’m predicting it is going to, that’s going to drive up the price of meals we import together with John Deere tractors, computer systems, et cetera,” he additionally stated.
U.S.-based coverage advisor John Dickerman, nonetheless, pointed to the commerce and power sectors, particularly, as ones that might current alternatives throughout Trump’s second time period.
“The very first thing that popped into my thoughts is, the place are the potential alternatives for alignment between america and Canada and a second Trump presidency? And I believe that is one thing that within the enterprise group we’re notably desirous about serious about,” Dickerman stated in an interview with CTV Information. He’s the vice-president, United States, for the Enterprise Council of Canada.
“(Commerce and the power sector) are areas the place friction exists between america and Canada, no matter who’s within the White Home,” he stated. “However a manner ahead on negotiating alternatives is definitely potential.”
He additionally cautioned towards making assumptions about Trump’s commerce, financial, and power insurance policies earlier than the brand new administration begins making selections and bulletins.
“I believe we have to wait and see precisely what the financial and commerce group appears to be like like,” he stated. “Will holdovers from the earlier Trump administration fill particular roles? I believe the reply might be sure in some areas and no in others, and that can give us a really eager understanding of precisely what technique we have to make use of going ahead.”
“However I believe optimism is essential,” he additionally stated.
Commerce
Commerce
With Trump heading right into a second time period as president, Canada-U.S. commerce is more likely to be underneath the microscope. Each international locations are the opposite’s largest buying and selling accomplice, with province-to-state agreements additionally contributing considerably to commerce and funding.
In accordance with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce report, if Trump introduces the blanket 10-per cent tariff on all imports he’s promised, and Canada responds in type, Canadian incomes and productiveness would each fall.
The ensuing commerce warfare, the report continues, may value about $1,100 in foregone revenue yearly for individuals on either side of the border.
Canada’s Business Minister François-Philippe Champagne — a member of the federal authorities’s so-called Staff Canada initiative — was requested Tuesday about Trump’s tariff plans.
Whereas he didn’t reply to the tariffs query, Champagne had this to say in regards to the change in Canada-U.S. relations for the reason that Liberals took workplace: “As we speak, our provide chains are extra built-in than ever in key strategic locations. You are speaking about essential minerals, you are speaking semiconductors, and then you definitely discuss a development agenda for North America.”
Dickerman instructed CTV Information that as a result of Canada has already negotiated commerce and tariffs with the earlier Trump administration, it “isn’t essentially able of weak spot.”
“The true key might be whether or not or not the non-public sector and the general public sector in Canada can come collectively and work cooperatively underneath negotiating alternative with the Trump administration,” he stated.
Early in his first presidency, Trump additionally triggered what turned a high-drama renegotiation of the North American Free Commerce Settlement, and now he is vowed to make the most of the 2026 overview clause stitched into the revised deal, threatening to re-open the settlement for re-negotiation.
That has put sectors with deeply built-in provide chains on alert.
“He is saying to the world on day one, we’ll put a ten per cent tariff on the whole lot. That runs counter to … our free commerce settlement,” stated Automotive Components Producers’ Affiliation president Flavio Volpe. “However I believe we have to take them severely. We have to exhibit, as soon as once more, that half of the automobiles made on this nation are made by American automobile firms, and half of the elements that are available to assemble two million automobiles come from American vegetation, and 60 per cent of the uncooked materials come from American sources.”
“So as soon as once more, Canada and the U.S. are so effectively built-in, it would not be transfer,” Volpe stated.
Political relations
Political relations
To organize for any eventuality on this election, the Canadian authorities introduced a “Staff Canada engagement technique” final January, “to advertise and defend Canada’s pursuits.”
That strategy is led by Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman, Overseas Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Champagne, and Commerce Minister Mary Ng.
“The friendship between Canada and the U.S. is the envy of the world,” Trudeau stated in a submit on social media Wednesday morning. “I do know President Trump and I’ll work collectively to create extra alternative, prosperity, and safety for each of our nations.”
Canadian politicians have been fast to congratulate Trump on his election win on Wednesday, and all have insisted the federal authorities is ready for a second Trump time period. Trump, in the meantime, has notably levied a number of criticisms at Canada, Trudeau’s authorities, and the prime minister particularly, previously.
Trump has beforehand taken intention at Trudeau for being “two confronted,” “weak” and a “far-left lunatic.”
The connection between the 2 deteriorated after the G7 assembly in Charlevoix, Que., in 2018, “and didn’t recuperate,” Carleton College political scientist Aaron Ettinger instructed CTVNews.ca in an electronic mail this summer time.
Following these conferences, Trudeau stated at a press convention that Canada wouldn’t be “pushed round” by the U.S. within the face of “insulting” aluminum and metal tariffs. Seemingly in response, Trump turned to social media to jot down that Trudeau “acted so meek and gentle” throughout the summit.
Freeland tried to guarantee anxious Canadians on Wednesday, pointing to the Trudeau authorities’s earlier expertise navigating a Trump presidency.
“I wish to say with utter sincerity and conviction to Canadians that Canada might be completely superb,” she stated.
“We have now a robust relationship with america. We have now a robust relationship with President Trump and his group,” Freeland continued. “I’ve actual confidence that Canada goes to return collectively and face this second… We have accomplished it earlier than.”
Border
Border
Whereas Trump’s first time period was marked by the now-infamous development of a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico, this time round, he’s promised mass deportations of unlawful migrants as a part of a large-scale immigration crackdown.
Former U.S. ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft — who served from 2017-2019 underneath Trump throughout his first time period — instructed CTV’s Query Interval host Vassy Kapelos final week that Canada ought to put together for a lot of of those that are deported to move north.
“I believe you must perceive that day one, Donald Trump goes to close our southern border down, she stated, including “all of those unlawful immigrants, the entire terrorists, the entire drug traffickers, the drug cartels, the human traffickers,” are “going to flee to Canada.”
“As a result of they know that when Donald Trump involves workplace, they’re out of right here, in order that they’ll be fleeing over the northern border,” she additionally stated.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller stated he’ll proceed to make sure Canada has “an immigration system that’s disciplined, that’s managed.”
If Trump makes good on his immigration guarantees, Canada may additionally see a surge of asylum claims, amid potential elevated curiosity amongst Individuals in transferring north.
Defence
Defence
An space by which Canada has lengthy confronted criticism from a number of allies, not solely america, is its defence spending.
Canada has lengthy confronted strain from allies to fulfill the NATO army alliance’s goal of spending two per cent of GDP on defence. Whereas about two-thirds of the group’s members will achieve this this yr, Canada doesn’t plan to till 2032.
In accordance with Craft, that date is “not adequate,” and the federal authorities should spend extra, and sooner, as soon as Trump is again in workplace.
“I imagine that Canada must get up and perceive that when you’re employed from inside, and also you strengthen, you should have no higher good friend than america underneath a Trump presidency, as a result of we have now a confirmed report,” she stated on CTV’s Query Interval this week.
“Donald Trump, when he says he expects individuals to pay their justifiable share, they’ll,” Craft added.
Trump, in the meantime, has threatened a number of instances to tug the U.S. out of NATO, and stated earlier this yr that if he turned president as soon as once more, america wouldn’t defend member international locations that don’t meet the spending goal. NATO’s Article 5 outlines the precept of collective defence, and that an assault on one member nation is taken into account an assault on all.
With recordsdata from CTV Information’ Rachel Aiello, Menna Elnaka, and Daniel Otis
