As skilled golf’s fall season continues and the game stays in its basic offseason, it’s time for The Athletic to dive into some broader debates and discussions about what we anticipate in 2025. Take into account it an opportunity to interact in barroom golf dialogue. When you’ve got any matters or concepts you need to hear about from our writers, please do counsel them within the feedback.
This time, we’re debating what number of main championships among the world’s greatest males’s golfers will win of their lifetime. That is Half 1 — we’ll focus on Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and extra subsequent time.
Scottie Scheffler o/u 6.5 majors
Proper now: 28 years previous, two majors
Brody Miller: Below
I’m as excessive on Scheffler as anybody, however no person apart from Tiger Woods has made the leap to seven wins within the final 40 years. Tom Watson was the final outdoors of Woods, profitable eight from 1975 to 1983. Even Lee Trevino and Phil Mickelson at six every got here with outside-the-norm main wins at 44 and 50. Scheffler competes in a time with Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas (all with a number of majors) nonetheless of their rivalry home windows, plus loads of younger golfers developing with out one like Ludvig Åberg and Viktor Hovland. Golf isn’t the NBA, the place you usually really feel like one of the best staff and stars come away with the title most years. Scheffler has been the plain greatest golfer on the planet for roughly three years now. He received two majors out of 12. It’s actually, actually arduous. Six could be an unbelievable accomplishment.
Gabby Herzig: Over
Out of any energetic gamers on both the PGA Tour or LIV, Scheffler has one of the best likelihood at making a Tiger-esque separation from the remainder and profitable a historic variety of majors for his era. I’m not saying he’s going to win 15, however from what I’m seeing proper now within the males’s skilled sport, he’s in one of the best spot to construct an elite resume and capitalize on the majors particularly. I’m a agency believer within the longevity of Scheffler as a participant, his ball-striking consistency, his distinctive capacity to prevail on the hardest exams and his strategy to bettering his personal sport — he’s solely targeted on the basics. I don’t see that amongst different elite gamers. It’s not arduous to think about Scheffler profitable two majors in a season, like Schauffele did this summer season. Then, after that, he’d solely have three extra titles to knock off to hit the “over.” And he’s solely 28 years previous.
Brooks Koepka returned from an damage to win the 2023 PGA Championship. (Warren Little / Getty Pictures)
Brooks Koepka o/u 6.5
Proper now: 34 years previous, 5 majors
Miller: Below
What would you set the percentages of Koepka profitable one other main at — 40-60? 30-70? That’s not a slight. If he wins one other it won’t be a shock, however it’ll additional mark Koepka as one of many twenty first century’s best rivals. As a result of he’s a 34-year-old golfer making boatloads of cash on LIV who didn’t end within the high 25 of a single main in 2024. It’s vital to do not forget that even an elite golfer like Koepka goes into majors with an implied chance of profitable of 8 p.c to 10 p.c in his greatest stretches. Can he win two extra? Actually. He’s completely different from regular golfers. It’s only a lot to ask.
Herzig: Below
Koepka is a killer within the majors, that’s surely. However two extra at 34 years previous with a questionable knee? I can’t precisely fathom it. Gamers undergo peaks and valleys of their enjoying careers, and sure, Koepka is trying to climb his approach again up. However since securing his fifth main on the 2023 PGA Championship, Koepka has one top-20 end within the sport’s most prestigious occasions. The LIV Golf schedule and format received’t endure vital renovations anytime quickly, and proper now, it’s not proving to boost the video games of its greatest gamers (DeChambeau the evident exception). Over the following few years, I don’t see Koepka elevating sufficient to win two extra majors towards gamers like Scheffler and Schauffele.
Jon Rahm’s 2023 Masters win was his second main. (Christian Petersen / Getty Pictures)
Jon Rahm o/u 3.5
Proper now: 29 years previous, two majors
Miller: Over
Rahm had a very unhealthy 12 months in public notion. And he had a very irritating 12 months at majors, going T45-CUT-WD-T7. However it might be a large mistake to view that as the truth. He stays one of many 4 greatest golfers on the planet. He’s nonetheless No. 3 on DataGolf. And even when we concede one thing was off within the spring (my guess is the general public criticism acquired to him), from June on Rahm was incredible. He completed seventh on the Open Championship, received two LIV occasions, ought to have received the Olympic gold if not for a historic collapse, and had a run of three straight top-seven finishes on the DP World Tour the final month. The purpose is Rahm hasn’t fallen off. He’s not even 30 but. Rahm will get to 5.
Herzig: Over
My critique of LIV from a aggressive standpoint nonetheless holds for Rahm. Although there have been a wide range of components, simply take a look at the Spaniard’s 2024 match file in contrast with 2023. However I nonetheless imagine he has two extra majors in him. He’s a younger 29, he’s nonetheless settling into a brand new section in his profession, and as a Masters champion, we already know his sport is suited to the venue that males’s golf returns to yearly. I’m particularly bullish on Rahm’s capacity to win one other Masters. If Rahm can determine find out how to capitalize on the LIV construction as DeChambeau has, he’ll make it occur.
GO DEEPER
Why Justin Thomas could possibly be headed to a comeback 12 months in 2025
Cameron Smith joined LIV proper after his 2022 Open win and hasn’t been the identical since. (Stuart Franklin / R&A by way of Getty Pictures)
Cameron Smith o/u 1.5
Proper now: 31 years previous, one main
Miller: Over
Smith goes to win yet another bizarre main. I’ve by no means been extra certain of one thing. I’m able to doubt Smith will ever get again to that 2021-2022 run, when he was among the best golfers on the planet. I’ve conceded the fishing-loving, go-with-the-flow Aussie in all probability misplaced some fireplace with north of $100 million banked and a chill LIV life-style. All the facility to him. However whilst his sport’s declined, he has three high 10s within the final seven main begins. He all the time performs properly at Augusta, a spot the place individuals can age gracefully. I’ll be shocked if Smith will get to a few majors. However I’ll be simply as shocked if he doesn’t win yet another scrappy Open or Masters.
Herzig: Below
I’m going with the underneath right here as a result of logistically, Smith has to show issues round fairly shortly if he desires to maintain profitable majors. He hasn’t received an occasion outdoors of LIV because the Australian PGA Championship in November 2022, and T6-T-63-T32-MC wasn’t precisely a promising main efficiency in 2024. Smith shall be exempt into The Open till he’s 60 years previous, however until the Australian places up some leads to the following few years, his main shelf life is expiring. Smith is barely exempt into the Masters, PGA and U.S. Open by way of 2027. The clock is ticking for the 31-year-old to re-establish himself on the most important phases.
Offseason wrist surgical procedure has Jordan Spieth’s future in query. (Tracy Wilcox / PGA Tour by way of Getty Pictures)
Jordan Spieth o/u 3.5
Proper now: 31 years previous, three majors
Miller: Below
I can’t be so chilly and cynical about the remainder after which be optimistic about Spieth. Spieth’s profitable one other main could be an unbelievable sight. He stays the preferred golfer to so many followers. He’s one way or the other solely 31, and possibly his wrist surgical procedure actually will get him again on observe. Even this 12 months at Valhalla, Pinehurst and Royal Troon he had good stretches when he was within the combine. Spieth simply has not been capable of put 72 holes collectively for a very long time. It will be naive to anticipate him to achieve the top of the game once more till we, you realize, see it.
Herzig: Below
I desperately need to see one other Spieth miracle. If anybody can pull one thing off that’s to date towards the percentages — even when it’s simply an escape shot that weaves between three completely different timber, a pond and a bunker — it’s Spieth. However I’m frightened about his wrist, I’m frightened in regards to the time he has been dedicating to the PGA Tour board and I’m frightened in regards to the adjustments he has been trying to make to his swing. Spieth’s majors period could possibly be over, however I don’t assume which means he received’t win once more, interval. If Spieth can get his physique again on observe, he’ll win extra PGA Tour occasions. I simply don’t assume he can compete like Scheffler and Schauffele can on the majors, particularly with the bodily and psychological setbacks he has been dealing with for the previous few seasons.
(Prime photograph of Scottie Scheffler: Andrew Redington / Getty Pictures)
