Components of Europe have endured relentless heatwaves over the previous few months, with a number of nations setting new information.
And at the least 10 nations worldwide have recorded temperatures of 50C and above previously yr.
Tens of 1000’s of individuals died because of the excessive temperatures in Europe final yr. Supply: SBS Information
Linden Ashcroft, lecturer in local weather science and science communication on the College of Melbourne, says climate in Europe is just not a predictor for Australian summers.
“Globally, we see temperatures rising all over the world, however the northern hemisphere is completely different,” she mentioned.
“A record-breaking northern hemisphere summer season doesn’t imply that can occur right here.
“There are a variety of uniquely Australian components, reminiscent of our scenario between the Pacific and Indian oceans, that are important.”
Ashcroft defined that as an island continent, Australia’s waters closely have an effect on the local weather.
“The temperatures above the seas play a big position in our onshore climate,” she mentioned.
“Antarctic winds may have an effect on rainfall.”
‘This yr is wanting unpredictable’
, phrases used to explain adjustments in wind, clouds, and ocean temperatures within the jap and central Pacific.
Previously few summers, Australia has skilled El Niño, which usually reduces rainfall and results in elevated warmth.
However Ashcroft mentioned an El Niño has not been forecast for this summer season.
“This yr is wanting unpredictable so put together for something, it’ll possible be scorching, however we don’t learn about rainfall,” she mentioned.
Tom Mortlock, a senior analyst at Aon insurance coverage firm and an adjunct fellow on the Local weather Change Analysis Centre on the College of New South Wales, mentioned the seasonal outlook seems impartial for the upcoming summer season.
“It’s a pendulum swing between El Niño and La Niña; proper now, it is bang within the center,” he mentioned.
Previously few summers, Australia has skilled an El Niño climate sample, which usually reduces rainfall and results in elevated warmth. Credit score: AAPIMAGE
Mortlock mentioned a number of seasonal indicators counsel a impartial summer season, the place neither El Niño nor La Niña is asserted.
However a minority of predictors are tipping a La Niña yr.
“There’s round a 50 per cent likelihood of a La Niña being declared, which might imply cooler temperatures within the east and likewise wetter climate,” he mentioned.
One other climatic indicator, , additionally seems impartial, in line with Mortlock.
The IOD, a local weather sample affecting the Indian Ocean, might help predict whether or not Australia will expertise roughly rainfall than common.
Whereas it’s too early to make particular predictions, specialists forecast a cooler and wetter summer season in comparison with final yr.
The Bureau of Meteorology, which forecasts upcoming seasons, has but to launch its predictions for summer season 2024/2025.
