A army alliance between Somalia and Egypt is ruffling feathers within the fragile Horn of Africa, upsetting Ethiopia particularly – and there are worries the fallout may turn into greater than a disagreement.
The tensions ratcheted up this week with the arrival of two Egyptian C-130 army aeroplanes in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, signalling the start of the deal signed earlier in August throughout a state go to by the Somali president to Cairo.
The plan is for as much as 5,000 Egyptian troopers to affix a new-look African Union power on the finish of the 12 months, with one other 5,000 reportedly to be deployed individually.
Ethiopia, which has been a key ally of Somalia in its struggle in opposition to al-Qaeda-linked militants and is at loggerheads with Egypt over a mega dam it constructed on the River Nile, mentioned it couldn’t “stand idle whereas different actors take measures to destabilise the area”.
Somalia’s defence minister hit again, saying Ethiopia ought to cease “wailing” as everybody “will reap what they sowed” – a reference to their diplomatic relations which were on a downward spiral for months.
Why are Ethiopia and Somalia at odds?
All of it comes all the way down to the ambitions of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who desires his landlocked nation to have a port. Ethiopia misplaced its entry to the ocean when Eritrea seceded within the early Nineteen Nineties.
On New 12 months’s Day, Mr Abiy signed a controversial take care of the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease a 20km (12-mile) part of its shoreline for 50 years to arrange a naval base.
It may additionally doubtlessly result in Ethiopia formally recognising the breakaway republic – one thing Somaliland is pushing arduous for.
Somaliland broke away from Somalia greater than 30 years in the past, however Mogadishu regards it very a lot as a part of its territory – and described the deal as an act of “aggression”.
Somalia fears such a transfer would possibly set a precedent and encourage different nations to recognise Somaliland’s independence, geopolitical analyst Jonathan Fenton-Harvey informed the BBC.
He added that neighbouring Djibouti was additionally anxious it may hurt its personal port-dependent financial system, as Ethiopia has historically relied on Djibouti for imports.
In actual fact in an try to deescalate tensions, Djibouti’s international minister has informed the BBC his nation is able to supply Ethiopia “100%” entry to one among its ports.
“It will likely be within the port of Tadjoura – 100km [62 miles] from the Ethiopia border,” Mahmoud Ali Youssouf informed BBC Concentrate on Africa TV.
That is positively a change of tune for as not too long ago as final 12 months, a senior presidential adviser mentioned Djibouti was reluctant to supply its neighbour unfettered entry to the Purple Sea.
Makes an attempt thus far to calm tensions – by Turkey – have failed, with Somalia insisting it is not going to budge till Ethiopia recognises its sovereignty over Somaliland.
Why is Ethiopia so upset by Somalia’s response?
Somalia has not solely introduced its Nile enemy Egypt into the combination, but in addition introduced that Ethiopian troops wouldn’t be a part of the AU power from subsequent January.
That is when the AU’s third peace help operation begins – the primary one was deployed in 2007 months after Ethiopian troops crossed over the border to assist struggle al-Shabab Islamist militants, who then managed the Somali capital.
There are not less than 3,000 Ethiopian troops underneath the present AU mission, in response to the Reuters information company.
Final week, the Somali prime minister additionally mentioned Ethiopia must withdraw its different 5-7,000 troopers stationed in a number of areas underneath separate bilateral agreements – until it withdrew from the port take care of Somaliland.
Ethiopia sees this as a slap within the face for, as its international minister put it, “the sacrifices Ethiopian troopers have paid” for Somalia.
The withdrawal of troops would additionally go away Ethiopia weak to jihadist assaults, Christopher Hockey, a senior researcher on the Royal United Companies Institute, informed the BBC.
The deliberate deployment of Egyptian troops alongside its japanese border would additionally make Ethiopia notably apprehensive, he added.
Egypt sees Ethiopia’s Nile dam – within the west of the nation – as an existential menace – and has warned up to now that it’ll take “measures” ought to its safety be threatened.
Why is the Nile dam so contentious?
Egypt accuses Ethiopia of threatening its provide of water with the development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd).
This started in 2011 on the Blue Nile tributary in Ethiopia’s northern-western highlands, from the place 85% of the Nile’s water circulate.
Egypt mentioned Ethiopia pushed ahead with the challenge in full “disregard” of the pursuits and rights of downstream nations and their water safety.
It additionally argued {that a} 2% discount in water from the Nile may outcome within the lack of round 200,000 acres (81,000 hectares) of irrigated land.
For Ethiopia the dam is seen as a means of revolutionising the nation by producing electrical energy for 60% of the inhabitants and offering a continuing circulate of electrical energy for companies.
The most recent diplomatic efforts to work out how the dam ought to function – and decide how a lot water will circulate downstream to Sudan and Egypt – fell aside final December.
How anxious ought to we be?
Egypt sees its army take care of Somalia as “historic” – within the phrases of Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi – and a doable probability to settle scores over the mega dam.
Certainly the Nile dispute could properly play out in Somalia, warns Dr Hassan Khannenje, the director of the Horn Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research.
It may doubtlessly result in a “low-scale inter-state battle” between Ethiopia and Egypt if their troops meet on the Somalia border.
Somaliland has additionally warned that the institution of Egyptian army bases inside Somalia may destabilise the area.
Each Ethiopia and Somalia are already dealing with their very own inside strife – Ethiopia with low-level rebellions in a number of areas and Somalia, recovering from a damaging 30-year civil struggle, nonetheless has al-Shabab to take care of.
Consultants say neither can afford additional warfare – and extra unrest would inevitably result in additional migration.
Dr Khannenje informed the BBC that if a battle broke out, it may additional complicate the geopolitics of the Purple Sea by drawing in different gamers and additional have an effect on world commerce.
No less than 17,000 ships undergo the Suez Canal every year, which means that 12% of annual world commerce passes by way of the Purple Sea, amounting to $1tn (£842bn) price of products, in response to delivery monitor Lloyd’s Listing.
For that reason, nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Turkey have been eager to forge partnerships with African nations like Somalia that border the Purple Sea.
In accordance with Mr Harvey, Turkey and the UAE stand a greater probability at mediating and discovering a center floor.
The UAE has closely invested in Somaliland’s Berbera port and holds vital affect over Ethiopia due to its investments there.
All eyes will probably be on the subsequent diplomatic push by Turkey, which has ties with each Ethiopia and Somalia. Talks are because of begin in mid-September.
Extra reporting by the BBC’s Ashley Lime, Waihiga Mwaura, Kalkidan Yibeltal & Juneydi Farah.
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