2024 NFL win complete projections for all 32 groups: Specialists react to our mannequin

The Detroit Lions have by no means received 10 or extra video games in consecutive seasons. Will that change this yr?

Can something maintain the two-time defending Kansas Metropolis Chiefs from nabbing the AFC’s prime seed? Will Jayden Daniels’ arrival elevate the Washington Commanders? May Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos or Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers land among the many league’s backside feeders?

Let’s go to our specialists to reply these questions, with the assistance of analytics and our eyes on the beat.

After working 10,000 simulations of the 2024 season, Austin Mock’s NFL betting mannequin has calculated an anticipated win complete for each crew, from the San Francisco 49ers (11.4 wins) to the Washington Commanders (5.9). (You may see the AFC groups right here and the NFC right here.) Now, our beat writers are right here to reply: Is the mannequin too excessive, too low or simply proper concerning the crew you cowl?

San Francisco 49ers

Win complete: 11.4

This feels excellent. The 49ers received 13 video games in 2022 and 12 video games in 2023. Issue within the exhaustion from repeated postseason runs (the 49ers have performed 60 video games over the previous three seasons), and one other decline in win complete this season would make sense. However the Niners, assuming there’s a decision to the contractual conditions involving Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk, may’ve really upgraded their roster this offseason. Seven members of their 2024 draft class made the 53-man roster, together with a starter at what had been the offense’s weakest place, proper guard. And quarterback Brock Purdy is predicted to enhance with expertise. The 49ers’ protection, coming off a down yr, has seen a expertise overhaul, which may assist them keep within the 11- to 12-win vary. — David Lombardi

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

Win complete: 11.3

Projecting the Chiefs to have the very best document within the AFC is logical. However they might have greater than 11 victories, particularly in the event that they sweep their two-game dwelling sequence to begin the season in opposition to the Ravens and the Bengals. The Chiefs are clearly favored to win their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have dominated the division, and the Chiefs have arguably the league’s finest kicker in Harrison Butker, who often provides them a essential benefit in tight video games. The largest concern is that if their protection slides again within the rankings with L’Jarius Sneed, Willie Homosexual and Mike Edwards not on the roster. — Nate Taylor

Detroit Lions

Win complete: 10.5

The case for the Lions exceeding 10.5 wins is that they received 12 video games a yr in the past with a younger roster and apparent holes. This offseason, they bolstered their secondary, added D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport alongside the defensive position and count on their younger gamers to take a step ahead. On the similar time, although, the Lions face a first-place schedule, and the division is more durable on paper. There’s a world through which the crew is extra full general however wins fewer video games. However I’ve the Lions at 12 wins once more, so it’s a contact low, for my part. — Colton Pouncy

Baltimore Ravens

Win complete: 10.2

In the event you may assure Lamar Jackson will play 15 video games or extra, I’d say 10.2 wins is a bit low, merely due to how good Baltimore has been within the common season with a wholesome Jackson. Nonetheless, you may’t try this, so 10.2 appears excellent to me. The Ravens have a stable and deep crew, however they play a very powerful schedule and so they have official questions in two key areas: offensive line and edge rush. These components must be thought-about. — Jeff Zrebiec

Cincinnati Bengals

Win complete: 10.2

The Bengals had a completely wholesome Joe Burrow for simply five-and-a-half video games final yr. Their protection regarded nothing like its earlier self with out Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. They performed one of many hardest schedules within the league. Little or no went proper. They nonetheless received 9 video games. A projection of 10.2 is stable, however I’d be extra comfy going over than underneath. They’ve questions, little question, however they added veteran safeties, the schedule seems dramatically simpler, the offensive line is as stable as Burrow has performed behind. So long as Burrow is wholesome (all indicators are good) with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins exterior, 10 wins appears like the ground. — Paul Dehner Jr.

Win complete: 10.2

Mock writes, “In the end, this division comes right down to how effectively Eagles QB Jalen Hurts performs.” I agree. And that’s why I nonetheless really feel comfy about my 12-5 prediction from the spring. Hurts was noticeably extra polished in coaching camp. He was decisive, efficient and harmful on deep throws. The Eagles’ wealth of offensive expertise may produce, on the very least, a top-five offense if Hurts can command this technique correctly. Proprietor Jeffrey Lurie has demonstrated endurance together with his head coaches as long as there’s confidence in a aggressive path ahead. Nevertheless it’s price questioning whether or not a 10-win season could be thought-about a regression underneath Nick Sirianni. — Brooks Kubena

Win complete: 10.0

Regardless of Dallas’ three consecutive 12-win seasons, the mannequin’s 10-win projection is correct on line with what most would count on from the Cowboys. After profitable the NFC East, the Cowboys have a troublesome first-place schedule, which incorporates video games in opposition to the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Eagles (twice), Texans and Bengals. If they continue to be largely wholesome in the entire key spots, anyplace between 9 wins and 12 wins looks as if a good projection. — Saad Yousuf

Win complete: 9.8

Mock has the Packers’ win complete because the fifth-highest within the NFC. I feel the Packers will win 10 or 11 video games, so it’s nearly proper and, if something, a tick low. Jordan Love and firm received’t want the primary half of the season to work out the kinks of unfamiliarity, and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley appears to have his unit firing on all cylinders. The largest query marks are offensive line depth, the kicker place and youth within the secondary. Shore up a minimum of two of these three and the Packers might be a official title contender. — Matt Schneidman

Win complete: 9.7

This appears nearly proper. A crew led by Josh Allen in his prime ought to all the time be taken significantly. I’m certain, even with a number of questions in regards to the Payments in 2024, Allen is why they’ve the AFC’s fourth-highest win complete. However the questions are official. The protection may take an actual step again on account of cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term harm to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a brand new offense with out wideout Stefon Diggs or middle Mitch Morse. The Payments may wrestle with a troublesome early schedule, however don’t rule out a second-half surge as soon as all the brand new items jell simply in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia

Win complete: 9.6

It’s arduous to argue with this projection — and engaging how tightly the AFC East groups are grouped. The Jets clearly have probably the most proficient roster of the three from prime to backside, and if Aaron Rodgers can keep wholesome, there’s no cause they need to fall in need of 10 wins. That they had a top-five protection in every of the final two seasons, and the unit remains to be largely intact (and might be even higher if/when Haason Reddick lastly reviews). The offense needs to be vastly improved. Rodgers is clearly a serious improve over Zach Wilson and final yr’s rotation of backups, Breece Corridor is absolutely wholesome, Garrett Wilson is able to escape and GM Joe Douglas did a very good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt

Win complete: 9.5

This matches the over/underneath from BetMGM, so the specialists are aligned right here. Nonetheless, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light-weight schedule to begin the marketing campaign, I lean towards the over right here. I count on coach Mike McDaniel to subject one other offensive juggernaut whereas unleashing some new wrinkles that the majority defenses received’t have the ability to deal with. I’m involved about Miami’s defensive position with out Christian Wilkins but additionally love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I feel Miami will get off to a different scorching begin however should combat to get to 10 wins in opposition to what appears like a really powerful closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello

Win complete: 9.4

If the Falcons don’t win a minimum of 10 video games, they’ll be disenchanted, and they need to be. They mentioned they had been able to compete “on the highest degree” once they fired Arthur Smith. They assured Kirk Cousins $100 million. They traded for Matthew Judon and signed Justin Simmons. Eighty-one-year-old proprietor Arthur Clean is pushing all his chips in and making an costly guess that this crew is best than 9.4 wins. — Josh Kendall

Houston Texans

Win complete: 9.0

The Texans had been a shock success story final season, going 10-7 and profitable the AFC South. Mock initiatives them for 9 wins this season, however I feel they might once more surpass that. C.J. Stroud has a season of expertise underneath his belt. Bobby Slowik did effectively as a first-time play caller however will seemingly discover methods to get much more out of Stroud this season, given the extra weapons (together with Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon) acquired this offseason. Including go rusher Danielle Hunter in free company ought to assist each Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans’ protection as an entire. DeMeco Ryans’ squad has a very good shot at one other 10-win season and a return to the playoffs. — Mike Jones

Win complete: 8.9

9 wins feels about proper for the Chargers. I had them at 10 in my prediction in Might. Think about the additional sport the Jim Harbaugh bump. The gamers are purchased in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego College, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I imagine he could have the identical affect in Los Angeles. And, in fact, the Chargers nonetheless have among the best quarterbacks in soccer in Justin Herbert, who regarded nice in follow final week after coming back from his plantar fascia harm. — Daniel Popper

Win complete: 8.8

This feels a bit low for a crew that exceeded expectations in 2023 and added extra assets to each side of the ball. Accidents might be a significant component early, with the Rams returning a number of key gamers from absence: Jonah Jackson (shoulder), Puka Nacua (knee) and Darious Williams (hamstring). They need to get beginning proper sort out Rob Havenstein (ankle) again both in Week 1 or by Week 3. Beginning left sort out Alaric Jackson (ankle, suspension) might be again in Week 3. No, there’s no Aaron Donald — however a depleted Rams crew received 10 video games final season. They are going to go as quarterback Matthew Stafford goes. — Jourdan Rodrigue

Cleveland Browns

Win complete: 8.7

The Browns have a a lot larger ceiling than 8.7 wins, and internally, they’d say the roster is best than final yr’s model that went 11-5 regardless of having to play 5 totally different quarterbacks. However only one quarterback issues within the current and future, and Deshaun Watson simply had an unimpressive coaching camp whereas coming off of shoulder surgical procedure. He hasn’t performed a dwell snap in nearly 10 months and has performed 12 video games within the final three years. The Browns have numerous expertise, however can they depend on Watson? I’d say eight or 9 wins feels proper. — Zac Jackson

Win complete: 8.2

The Saints entered final yr as a no brainer favourite to win the NFC South with one of many league’s best schedules. They solely received 9 video games and missed the playoffs. Their schedule doesn’t appear a lot more durable this season, however the NFC South improved round them and New Orleans didn’t develop sufficient alongside the roster this offseason. These are official causes as to why the Saints aren’t the favorites in a nonetheless seemingly weak division. So an 8.2-win projection feels truthful. These projections additionally point out the Saints would miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, which might seemingly imply a brand new coach and new quarterback for the 2025 marketing campaign. — Larry Holder

Win complete: 8.2

Seattle went 9-8 due to slim Week 18 victories in every of Pete Carroll’s closing two seasons. Mike Macdonald inherited a lot of the identical roster, so even when his new teaching workers is best, this projection feels correct. The NFC West is a troublesome division, and Seattle has official questions at inside linebacker and offensive line. Plus there may naturally be some rising pains alongside the best way with a wholly new teaching workers led by a first-year head coach and first-year offensive coordinator. — Michael-Shawn Dugar

Win complete: 8.1

The Bears path the Lions (10.5) and Packers (9.8), however a nine- or 10-win season doesn’t really feel like a attain, both. The Bears beat the division-winning Lions final yr — and coach Matt Eberflus’ protection needs to be higher this season. Quarterback Caleb Williams could have his rookie moments, however he’s surrounded by expertise with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and working again D’Andre Swift. They’ll all assist with Williams’ rising pains. — Adam Jahns

Win complete: 8.1

I feel this can be a 10-win crew. And if the Jaguars play nearer to the model that went 15-5 from late 2022 to early 2023, they may have 12-win potential. In fact, loads should go proper for that to materialize. My largest concern is the Jags begin on the Dolphins, return dwelling for the Browns, then go to the Payments and Texans. In the event that they aren’t on level and fall to 0-4, there’s no telling what that might do to their confidence. However barring a disaster of that magnitude, they’ve acquired sufficient winnable video games over the ultimate three months of the season to exceed the projected 8.1 wins. — Jeff Howe

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win complete: 7.6

Mike Tomlin has been the mannequin of consistency, by no means ending with a dropping document in 17 seasons as coach. The largest risk to that streak is likely one of the NFL’s most difficult schedules. The Steelers play in arguably the league’s best division. The backstretch is brutal, with three video games — at Baltimore, at Philadelphia and vs. Kansas Metropolis — in 10 days in December. Nonetheless, it could be arduous to guess in opposition to Tomlin’s historical past, making the 7.6 win projection a bit low. The remade offensive line and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith ought to assist. If Tomlin can get to .500 or higher with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, he ought to have the ability to do it with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. — Mike DeFabo

Win complete: 7.5

The Colts received 9 video games final yr primarily with backup QB Gardner Minshew on the helm. Their schedule is more durable this season, however the perception internally is {that a} wholesome Anthony Richardson can elevate the whole crew. I agree that Richardon’s dual-threat talents make him able to main Indianapolis to extra wins than Mock’s projected 7.5, although the inexperienced secondary might be a giant weak point. Assuming the again finish doesn’t fully collapse, I’ll pencil the Colts in for 10 wins and their first playoff berth since 2020. — James Boyd

Win complete: 7.5

Inner expectations and fan expectations are a lot higher than this. In accordance with Mock’s mannequin, the Bucs are eleventh within the NFC and third within the NFC South behind the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs received 9 final yr, and the final notion is that they improved within the offseason with the additions of Jordan Whitehead, Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan. Whether or not they enhance or slide may rely largely on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had a breakout yr in 2023 and is adjusting to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has changed Dave Canales. — Dan Pompei

Win complete: 7.3

The quarterback collection of Gardner Minshew over Aidan O’Connell didn’t transfer the needle a lot, so it’s no shock that Mock has the Raiders at 7.3 wins, simply clearing the Vegas over-under line of 6.5 wins. The protection needs to be excellent, Davante Adams remains to be among the best offensive gamers within the league, and first-round decide Brock Bowers ought to have a huge impact at tight finish. Issues may come up if there are any accidents, because the Raiders aren’t deep and new normal supervisor Tom Telesco is taking the lengthy view with salary-cap house. And if the Raiders get off to a sluggish begin, Adams may name for a commerce, so … 7.3 sounds good, however there’s some shaky floor. — Vic Tafur

Win complete: 7.1

Native optimism is excessive. And it needs to be. Kyler Murray is wholesome. The expertise round him is best. The Cardinals are trending in the suitable course. However coming off a four-win first season underneath coach Jonathan Gannon, 7.1 wins in Yr 2 sounds proper. GM Monti Ossenfort inherited a big rebuilding job, and the worst factor he may’ve performed was attempt to do an excessive amount of too quickly. That is the subsequent step. Maximize Murray. Enhance defensively. Develop depth. Discover ways to win. Reversals can occur rapidly, however for the Cardinals, there are not any shortcuts. — Doug Haller

Win complete: 6.8

There are days when Mock’s projection feels low — and different days when it feels excessive. Is it underrating Brian Flores’ protection? Is it precisely assessing quarterback Sam Darnold? Possibly sure, perhaps no. In the event you assume it’s too excessive, it’s most likely due to the schedule. The Vikings open with the Giants, then face a gauntlet: 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions and Rams. These six groups have unimaginable expertise and high-end teaching. In the event you see 6.8 wins as too low, you’re most likely Darnold’s state of affairs alongside Justin Jefferson and head coach Kevin O’Connell and considering an explosive offense is in retailer. Each viewpoints make sense. Anybody who thinks they know the way it’ll play out is overconfident. — Alec Lewis

Win complete: 6.8

That is on the low facet of the Titans’ vary, however six or seven wins is actually potential, particularly with the powerful NFC North on the schedule. It is a very tough crew to challenge contemplating the adjustments and unknowns. A primary-time head coach (Brian Callahan) with first-time coordinators (Nick Holz, Dennard Wilson) will rely closely on draft picks plugged into key roles instantly (left sort out JC Latham, defensive sort out T’Vondre Sweat), and hope key veteran acquisitions (L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, Chidobe Awuzie, Tony Pollard, Quandre Diggs) have best-case seasons. Oh, and the Titans hope they’ve a franchise quarterback in Will Levis. They only don’t know but. — Joe Rexrode

Win complete: 6.7

It’s wild to say a few crew with a projection of solely 6.7 wins, however this appears too excessive. The Patriots went 4-13 a yr in the past, parted with the best coach of all time and introduced again a remarkably related roster to final season. Drake Maye received’t be beginning at quarterback, the vast receiver and offensive line teams each rank among the many league’s worst, and the protection acquired worse in current weeks after dropping its prime two go rushers (Christian Barmore was identified with blood clots and is out indefinitely, whereas Matthew Judon was traded to the Falcons). — Chad Graff

New York Giants

Win complete: 6.7

That is proper on course. The Giants received six video games final yr and, sure, there was a Murphy’s Regulation component concerned with so many accidents to prime gamers. Nevertheless it’s not so simple as anticipating enchancment if the crew manages to remain more healthy. First, quarterback Daniel Jones has a prolonged harm historical past, so well being isn’t a given. Moreover, the Giants are with out some prime gamers from final season’s roster (Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney, Leonard Williams). They traded for Brian Burns and drafted Malik Nabers within the first spherical with the expectation they’ll be game-changers on each side of the ball. However there are sufficient query marks with the roster to mood expectations. — Dan Duggan

Win complete: 6.4

The mannequin was not sort to the Panthers, who sit forward of solely Denver (6.0) and Washington (5.9). Nevertheless it feels about proper, contemplating I picked the Panthers to go 6-11 when schedules had been launched in Might. It’s cheap to assume Bryce Younger will take a step ahead in a brand new offensive system and with improved blockers and playmakers. However with sizable holes at cornerback and edge rusher, the protection may take a step again. — Joseph Particular person

Denver Broncos

Win complete: 6.0

That is too low. In 16 seasons as an NFL head coach, Sean Payton has by no means received fewer than seven video games. The Broncos went 8-9 final season, then jettisoned a handful of veterans like Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy. However Wilson’s alternative at quarterback, Bo Nix, appears extra able to run Payton’s offense than I initially anticipated. A personnel overhaul within the entrance seven will make the Broncos higher in opposition to the run. Many gamers are in Yr 2 of their schemes, and it’s been straightforward to see the affect of that continuity in coaching camp. It’s truthful to promote the Broncos as a playoff crew, however seven wins appears like the ground to me. — Nick Kosmider

Washington Commanders

Win complete: 5.9

The broad oddsmakers set the win complete at 6.5, a quantity that many Jayden Daniels believers discover shockingly low. Mock’s mannequin went even decrease with a league-worst 5.9 wins. What the projections can not simply think about is the Commanders’ renewed aggressive spirit underneath coach Dan Quinn. Daniels’ upside and extra weekly consistency ought to push Washington above Mock’s quantity, however it may take harm and bounce-of-the-ball luck (and better-than-expected CB and OT play) to succeed in seven wins or sniff .500. — Ben Standig

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; images: Ryan Kang, Perry Knotts, Jaiden Tripi / Getty Pictures)