A Robust Coverage Debate Is Kamala Harris’s Greatest Shot to Break the Election Tie

The primary presidential debate of 2024 was a disaster that ended Joe Biden’s political profession. The second debate may very well be much more consequential. Within the first debate, Biden’s incoherent, mumbling efficiency was so dangerous it sparked a revolt inside his personal celebration that compelled the president to surrender his reelection bid. With the second debate, Kamala Harris has her finest probability to safe a decisive lead and make historical past as the primary lady president. But when she fails to take action, there’s a actual risk that the present polling impasse will proceed, ensuing within the disastrous return of Donald Trump to the White Home. That could be a prospect that dangers not simply the lack of a winnable election however the very finish of American democracy. The stakes for Tuesday’s debate couldn’t be greater.

On Sunday, the Harris marketing campaign obtained some sobering information: The revered and carefully watched New York Occasions/Siena ballot confirmed that Trump had retained his lead, with 48 p.c assist nationally as in opposition to 47 for Harris. To make certain, Democratic partisans had an affordable retort that this ballot was an outlier and that Harris nonetheless led in different current polls: Quinnipiac (+1), Wall Avenue Journal (+1), Economist (+2), Emerson (+2), Morning Seek the advice of (+3). Extra importantly, as John Nichols of The Nation has famous, Harris has remodeled the political map in ways in which ought to hearten her supporters. She is far more aggressive than Joe Biden in swing states within the South and Southwest (Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada). This provides her many extra doable paths than Trump has to 270 electoral votes.

However even the polls most favorable to Harris, whereas undoubtedly providing a rosier image than the The New York Occasions/Siena information, nonetheless paint an image of a scarily shut race—one nicely inside the margin of error. Harris, to her credit score, has tried to throw chilly water on the heady optimism of her extra enthusiastic supporters, rightly insisting that this stays a razor-thin race. She loved a surge of assist after changing Biden, however that has already peaked. One worrisome reality is that Harris didn’t get the anticipated bump from the Democratic Nationwide Conference. This means her marketing campaign could also be sputtering, maybe due to its pursuit of a low-risk technique of minimal media appearances and avoiding sturdy coverage stances.

The Harris marketing campaign has prioritized good vibes over concrete proposals. This good-vibes marketing campaign has had some success—however is now reaching its limits, which implies that the time is ripe for Harris to be far more substantive on the problems.

With the controversy, Harris has an opportunity to interrupt the impasse, however she has to emphasise three strengths: her potential to face as much as Donald Trump’s bullying, her compelling life story, and her potential to be a change president who could make life higher for odd Individuals.

Taking Donald Trump down a notch is the best activity. Except for his encounter with the radically diminished Biden, Trump has by no means finished nicely in nationwide debates. Each Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 have been capable of current themselves as sober and certified candidates in a method that highlighted Trump’s erratic habits and weak grasp of coverage. Even within the June debate with Biden, Trump really made many absurd and wildly unfaithful statements, similar to his remark that each authorized scholar had needed to overturn Roe v. Wade. This assertion would have badly harm Trump if he had confronted an opponent with a minimal potential to speak.

As Lisa Lerer famous in The New York Occasions, Harris has a formidable file as a debater:

Ms. Harris cast her political rise by rhetorical fight, capturing consideration with lacerating exchanges on debate levels and in congressional hearings. Her assaults are strategic and direct, with a managed supply—generally even a smile—and an instinctual sense for a news-making second.

In 2010, she gained a troublesome race for California legal professional basic after twisting a pivotal 47 seconds to her benefit within the contest’s solely debate. Her piercing questioning of Trump administration appointees and officers from her perch on the Senate Judiciary Committee constructed her nationwide profile. And a brutal alternate with President Biden in the course of the 2020 major over race and his heat remembrances of segregationist senators remodeled her picture into considered one of a presidential contender.

It’s affordable to anticipate Harris to carry her personal in opposition to Trump and Trump himself to self-sabotage by his tendency towards weird and aggressive habits.

However extra vital is whether or not Harris can win over voters for whom she stays an unknown amount, regardless of all of the media consideration she has gotten since Biden gave up the ghost of his presidential hopes. The New York Occasions, in a gloss on its current ballot, famous that on Trump, “opinions are largely fastened” however “Harris continues to be unknown to many.” The report added, “The survey discovered that 28 p.c of possible voters mentioned they felt they wanted to know extra about Ms. Harris, whereas solely 9 p.c mentioned they wanted to know extra about Mr. Trump.” The Democratic Nationwide Conference started the work of introducing Harris to the American public, however clearly this stays a activity that requires one other push. In utilizing Trump as foil, Harris can underscore her file as an skilled chief who is aware of the best way to battle.

However far more vital than her persona, insurance policies are one of the simplest ways for Harris to make the case for her presidency. Some analysts are encouraging Harris to proceed with a low-calorie marketing campaign of fine vibes. Writing in The New Republic, Peter Rothpletz argued that the perfect “technique to win the election isn’t to push out white papers and hyper-detailed plans for insurance policies; it’s to proceed to make the vibes- and values-based argument that has been working for Harris for the final six weeks.” That is myopic and counterproductive recommendation. Polls have proven that the good-vibes technique has peaked. There aren’t any extra new voters to win with vibes. Voters nonetheless on the fence need to know what Harris will do to make their lives higher. Because it occurs, there’s a lot Harris may say that might make clear the distinction between her and Trump on very particular points (reproductive freedom, prescription drug costs, value gouging). To attain the knockout she wants, Harris as to place the nice vibes apart and make the coverage pitch that may flip a dead-heat race right into a decisive victory.