With the Toronto Maple Leafs gearing up for coaching camp subsequent week, it’s the right time to dive into our ideas on the staff’s final lineup. On this complete assessment, I’ll be teaming up with my common writing associate, Stan Smith, to research the Maple Leafs’ roster from high to backside.
We’ll break down our analysis into three detailed sections:
- Prime Six Forwards: First, we’ll look at the staff’s high six forwards, exploring the important thing gamers and potential line mixtures that would drive the offense.
- Backside Six Forwards: In our follow-up submit, we’ll look at the underside six forwards, assessing their roles and the affect they may have on the staff’s total efficiency.
- Protection: Lastly, we’ll present an in-depth assessment of the Maple Leafs’ defensive corps, evaluating their strengths, potential pairings, and total contributions to the staff’s success.
That is our first submit as we try to uncover what this Maple Leafs staff would possibly appear to be because the common season begins.
The First Line: Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Auston Matthews is without doubt one of the high three gamers within the NHL and the perfect objective scorer. Now, he’s additionally the captain of the Maple Leafs. That is formally his staff. He’s the undisputed first-line middle. ‘Nuff mentioned.
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Matthews with Mitch Marner. Matthews with out Mitch Marner. That has been a query for eight years and can proceed to be a query. There’s additionally the argument in regards to the higher proper winger, Marner or William Nylander. For many of their careers, the final opinion has been that Marner has been the superior participant. Nylander has closed that hole, and an argument may very well be made that he surpassed Marner final season. A case may very well be made for Nylander to be on Matthews’ proper wing.
The explanation we went with Marner is due to his playmaking expertise. Marner is the superior playmaker. He has 445 assists in his profession in comparison with Nylander’s 311 in 27 fewer video games performed. With Matthews being the perfect goal-scorer within the league, it is smart to place him subsequent to the superior playmaker. As a bonus, each Matthews and Marner are full 200-foot gamers. Each have strong defensive video games and are within the Selke dialogue on the finish of every season. One final level: Nylander is a 40-goal scorer with a far superior shot than Marner. To us, he’s extra helpful taking part in away from Matthews.
Matthew Knies is a younger and rising energy ahead. Whereas he won’t have put up the numbers you’ll hope to see from a top-line winger final season, his recreation enhances that of Matthews and Marner fairly effectively. Knies is the bodily straw that stirs the drink on that line. He had 20 extra hits (169) than Matthews (90) and Marner (59) mixed final season. One of many set performs Matthews and Marner have had collectively proper from day one was to dump the puck into the left nook of the opposition’s zone and let the left winger go in, bang our bodies, and retrieve the puck. First, it was Zach Hyman, then Michael Bunting, and now Knies. With final yr being Knies’ rookie season, we don’t count on any sophomore jinx this season. We imagine he’ll take the following step in turning into a proto-typical energy ahead.
The Second Line: Easton Cowan – John Tavares – William Nylander
We understand John Tavares will likely be 34 years outdated when the puck drops within the 2024-25 season. Whereas individuals declare he has misplaced a step, we’ve got not seen it. In response to the brand new NHL Edge stats, Tavares’ high pace final season was 22.39 MPH (36.03 KM/H) in comparison with the league common of twenty-two.10 MPH (35.57 KM/H). On 105 events throughout video games, he reached speeds over 20 MPH (32.19 KM/H). The league common was 73 events. These stats weren’t accessible when Tavares was in his prime, so we are able to’t examine his skating now to when he was in his prime. He’s above common relating to his skating. Pace won’t be a power, however it’s not a weak point both.
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The larger query with Tavares is his stamina. Can he play 20 minutes a recreation? Does he need to? Because the second-line middle, Tavares has averaged slightly below 18 minutes a recreation over the previous 4 seasons. That doesn’t appear to be an enormous load. He doesn’t kill penalties, and his position on the facility play is often down low, both in entrance of the web or near it. That doesn’t require a ton of skating. We don’t see why he ought to have to vary his position an excessive amount of attributable to his age. Our greatest fear could be his defensive protection and how briskly he can recuperate if the play turns again up ice. There are hybrid defensive programs that would account for that if Tavares has quicker wingers on his line.
Since becoming a member of the staff, Tavares has been the Maple Leafs’ finest middle on the faceoff dot. Final season, his faceoff profitable share was 59.3%. Whereas his level manufacturing dropped by 20% final season, he nonetheless scored 29 objectives and 65 factors. He had averaged a degree a recreation till final season and had a 36-goal, 80-point season in 2022-23. We are able to’t know if the dropoff was attributable to a decline in capacity or a one-off. At this level, Tavares continues to be the Maple Leafs’ second-best middle.
With Marner on the highest line, it’s a no-brainer that Nylander strains up with Tavares on the second line. Nylander’s all-around recreation has improved steadily over the previous few years. He has scored 40 objectives in every of the final two seasons. His level manufacturing for the final three seasons has been 80, 87, and 98. He’s a powerful puck service and has a harmful, misleading shot. Whereas Tavares and Nylander haven’t put up essentially the most excellent defensive underlying stats collectively, Nylander’s recreation with out the puck is slowly enhancing.
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It’d shock some that we’ve got Easton Cowan on this line as a part of the final word lineup. Whereas his play in juniors has effectively surpassed what you would possibly count on from somebody who was a shock late first-round choose within the 2023 NHL Draft, how his recreation interprets to the NHL continues to be in query. Our reasoning is straightforward. Having Cowan on this line means he earned a spot out of camp, giving the Maple Leafs extra choices additional down the lineup. Cowan makes the staff and will likely be within the struggle for the Calder Trophy. We don’t count on him to win Rookie of the Yr, however he will likely be within the dialog.
We have to cowl ourselves by stating that if Cowan doesn’t make the staff out of camp, the battle for the left-wing spot on the second line will likely be between Max Domi, Bobby McMann, and Nick Robertson.
The Maple Leafs Prime Six in a Nutshell
In abstract, the highest six forwards have two key points that make this unit notably thrilling. First, the core 4 gamers are well-distributed throughout the 2 strains: two on the primary line and two on the second. Their younger, cost-effective companions give the staff larger flexibility and stability, enhancing the lineup’s total power. We’re assured that gamers like Knies will seamlessly combine into this setup, contributing to a formidable high six.
Second, Cowan’s potential affect as a tipping level on this unit is critical. His relentless drive and want to succeed, coupled together with his confirmed scoring capacity from final season in juniors, make him a participant to observe. Though his spot on the roster finally will depend on the teaching workers’s choices, his potential is simple.
As we anticipate an thrilling high six for the Maple Leafs, in our subsequent submit, we’ll analyze the underside six forwards and the way they’ll complement this dynamic lineup.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
