Vikings, Packers coaches make the NFC North the NFL’s greatest division: Sando’s Choose Six

The Minnesota Vikings seem like the very best staff within the NFL’s greatest division, except Sam Darnold’s MRI says in any other case. There’s a sentence nobody noticed coming.

We aren’t crowning anyone after Week 3. Former Vikings coach Dennis Inexperienced (RIP) wouldn’t permit it. However the first three weeks of this season have been a revelation for the NFC North.

The Choose Six column leads by appreciating elite teaching in Minnesota and Inexperienced Bay, whereas counting the the reason why the Chicago Bears have struggled to hitch the dialog. We aren’t overlooking the Detroit Lions, who nonetheless is likely to be the very best staff in the long run. However there’s rather a lot to kind by right here. The total Choose Six menu:

• The NFL’s most attention-grabbing division
• David Tepper, Andy Dalton and Carolina
• What you should find out about Dallas D
• Takeaways from wild Rams–49ers battle
• Rodgers ends Jets’ 24-game drought
• 2-minute drill: Nabers and firm

1. Week 4 delivers Vikings-Packers at Lambeau Area. Bud Grant and Vince Lombardi can be trying down approvingly.

Earlier than we run by the North staff by staff, right here’s how a former head coach and normal supervisor measurement up the division, which has seen the Vikings begin 3-0 with Darnold and a dominant protection, whereas the Packers have gained two straight with backup quarterback Malik Willis filling in for Jordan Love.

Head coach: “Proper now, it’s Minnesota first, then Detroit/Inexperienced Bay, then Chicago. You already know why I put Minnesota on the high? The protection.”

GM: “I might rank them by the head-coaching jobs. I believe Kevin O’Connell has performed the very best job. Matt LaFleur is second. He has performed nice with Malik Willis, who I don’t suppose can play. Dan Campbell, fairly good win at Arizona, the place I believed they may lose. I believe Chicago is in bother. That coach (Matt Eberflus) is embattled. I don’t blame the quarterback (Caleb Williams) in any respect. He’s working for his life, similar to he was at USC final yr.”

• Vikings: This time final season, the Vikings had been coming off a loss during which the opposing quarterback, Justin Herbert, accomplished 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns. That doesn’t appear doable, the way in which this Brian Flores-coordinated protection is taking part in now.

That is the Vikings’ greatest three-game begin on protection since a minimum of 2000 for factors allowed (10.0 per recreation), anticipated factors added (44.7) and success charge (66 %), per TruMedia. Defensive statistics generally is a operate of the opponent, however the Vikings have held heavyweights San Francisco and Houston (which Minnesota beat 34-7 on Sunday) to their lowest regular-season level totals because the begin of final season.

“They overload, but it surely finally ends up being a four-man rush, and so they roll up on the receivers on the skin,” an offensive coach stated. “They don’t let the quarterback have fast throws. They’ll convey (stress) sufficient to get your consideration. Your tendency is to wish to eliminate the ball quick. You need to have your protections structured so you may maintain the ball a bit of longer and get the ball down the sphere, but it surely’s powerful.”

The defensive dominance has allowed Darnold to play stress free, making an attempt solely two passes all season when trailing. However that isn’t all. Darnold leads the league with eight landing passes after tossing 4 Sunday. He ranks first in proportion of passes gaining greater than 15 yards amongst QBs with three begins. And he wasn’t even assured of the beginning job coming into the season.

“They get the ball upfield in addition to anybody, they do it by design and so they make good use of their personnel to make explosive performs,” the coach stated. “The mix of what Minnesota is doing defensively and what they’re doing within the passing recreation … s—, they’re for actual.”

Darnold additionally began 3-0 with Carolina in 2021, when he had 21 explosive move completions, seven greater than he’s had this season. That season unraveled, with Darnold tossing six landing passes with 12 interceptions the remainder of the way in which. So, there’s nonetheless a lot to show.

His tone on this clip actually issues me ☹️

Praying for no swelling tonight and good eval’s tomorrow 🙏 pic.twitter.com/3swEwiY5Nu

— cdott (@jjmccaurathy) September 23, 2024

And if Darnold’s knee harm is critical, the Vikings presumably could be out there to amass a substitute.

“If one thing occurs there, I believe they’re f—-d,” an exec stated. “You possibly can’t win with Nick Mullens. Kevin O’Connell proved final yr he can do higher than anticipated with a few of these guys, however when you find yourself right down to quarterback three, you might be in bother.”

• Packers: Inexperienced Bay acquired Willis lower than one month in the past. With him within the lineup the previous two weeks, the Packers rank first in speeding yards (449), rushes gaining 12-plus yards (12) and proportion of move performs gaining greater than 15 yards (26 %). They’ve led on the scoreboard for a league-high 90 % of performs, by no means trailing.

Figuring out Inexperienced Bay beat the Will Levis-led Tennessee Titans and the Anthony Richardson-led Indianapolis Colts offers context with out diminishing the accomplishment by an excessive amount of.

“All people anticipated them to do what Miami did in the present day, simply backside out,” a veteran coach stated, referencing the Dolphins’ 24-3 defeat at Seattle with out Tua Tagovailoa. “They adjusted to the quarterback and ran the hell out of the ball. You gotta give them credit score for what they’re doing. Are you able to maintain that long run? They don’t must!”

Love might return from his knee harm for the Minnesota recreation this week.

“I’ll give LaFleur and his offensive workers quite a lot of credit score,” the coach stated. “That’s the largest take a look at, when you need to alter on the fly. You’ve deliberate it a sure manner, after which hastily, you may have an entire completely different set of circumstances.”

• Lions: One potential concern for the Lions, as voiced by an exec earlier than the season, held that opponents could be higher ready for Detroit’s offense after learning it extra intently.

If that turns into the case, Detroit ought to fare worse on offense in rematches. That proved true in opposition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Week 2 rematch of their playoff assembly, but it surely wasn’t the case in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, one other rematch from the playoffs.

Week 4 might be attention-grabbing with Seattle coming to Ford Area. The Seahawks’ new coach, Mike Macdonald, was Baltimore’s defensive coordinator final season, when the Ravens handed the Lions their worst lack of the season, 38-6. The Seahawks are 3-0 and main the league in defensive EPA per play after dealing with three restricted offenses to start out the season (Denver, New England, Miami with out Tagovailoa). If the Seahawks shut down the Lions’ offense, that can be one thing.

The Lions floor out a 20-13 highway victory over Arizona on Sunday with out scoring within the second half, dropping tight finish Sam LaPorta to a sprained ankle. They rank first in offensive success charge for the season, however twentieth in EPA per play and 14th in offensive factors per recreation. They’ve completed their previous two video games with unfavourable EPA on offense, a primary for them in consecutive weeks since early within the 2022 season.

It’s early to have a lot of a really feel. Detroit stays the staff to beat within the division.

• Bears: What a wierd mixture of timelines and expectations.

Williams and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron are new to the staff. Simply beginning out.

Eberflus is 37 video games into his tenure, with solely 11 victories to indicate for it. He must win proper now.

The Bears didn’t precisely resist leaning into expectations after utilizing the primary choose within the draft on Williams and surrounding him with what some referred to as the very best supporting solid for a top-five choose in league historical past.

“The media will get excited, the personnel folks get excited and folks anticipate that man to come back in and simply tear it up,” a former head coach stated. “They did a great job placing folks round him. I don’t suppose the offensive line is superb.”

And that’s the No. 1 situation, however in a division that includes LaFleur, O’Connell and the Lions’ Ben Johnson on the offensive play-calling controls, the Bears are the apparent outlier.

“The Bears’ issues, in my view, begin with the offensive line and the development of it,” an evaluator stated. “Then it’s Waldron, particularly if you take a look at the opposite coordinators within the division. He’s clearly fourth. The pinnacle coach is fourth. Proper now, the quarterback is surviving on his personal.”

2. Andy Dalton confirmed out. Right here’s why I’m not shopping for the concept Panthers proprietor David Tepper compelled a quarterback change in Carolina.

Andy Dalton passing for 319 yards and three touchdowns in a 36-22 highway victory over the Las Vegas Raiders confirmed emphatically why the Panthers benched Bryce Younger after their 0-2 begin.

Individuals actually thought Carolina acted prematurely once they despatched Younger to the sideline?

Group proprietor David Tepper has earned his fame by driving ill-fated resolution after ill-fated resolution. However I’m not shopping for the extensively circulated assumption that he — and never head coach Dave Canales — drove the choice to bench Younger. It doesn’t make sense for the 2 most essential causes:

• Younger’s tape by two video games was so unhealthy that it ought to have taken intervention from possession to hold him in the lineup. An opposing coach who has studied the Panthers referred to as Younger’s play “miserable for the franchise” whereas echoing nameless participant feedback suggesting Younger has not improved.

• Tepper drove the choice to pick out Younger, amid rumblings that then-coach Frank Reich most popular C.J. Stroud. Why would Younger’s high advocate, Tepper, lead the cost to bench his hand-picked QB? Tepper’s historical past suggests he could be extra inclined to ask powerful questions of the coaches and staff builders.

“I believe this was the soccer guys saying, ‘What else can we do? No less than we are able to run an offense with Andy Dalton,’” an exec from one other staff stated.

Assuming the choice was certainly Canales’, he clearly made the proper one.

3. The Cowboys’ protection is in bother. Dan Quinn received out at simply the proper time. Right here’s the problem going through new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.

Have a look beneath on the Cowboys’ 5 worst statistical performances on protection since 2021, a span of 54 regular-season video games.

Two of the three worst video games had been current. Very current. As in, the final two weeks.

The Ravens’ 274-yard speeding efficiency of their 28-25 victory at Dallas on Sunday adopted New Orleans’ 190-yard speeding recreation versus Dallas within the Saints’ 44-19 victory final week.

Hiring Zimmer appeared like a powerful transfer as a result of he has a protracted monitor file of fielding robust defenses. However with Dallas dropping depth up entrance within the offseason, and with Zimmer’s scheme and persona differing so fully from these of Quinn, there was threat, too.

“Right here is the issue for Zimmer,” an opposing coach stated. “All the things was optimistic on a regular basis with Quinn. Now, it seems like every little thing is unfavourable. He’s coming into a spot that has been so profitable on protection that the final coordinator received a head-coaching job. The brand new man is available in and tries to alter issues, and the gamers typically say, ‘Wait a minute, we gained 12 video games final yr.’ This may grow to be a tailspin.”

Zimmer’s old-school, typically combative strategy can, at its greatest, create a unity that will get extra from a bunch than the sum of its components. Is that going to work for this staff?

“If I had been Dallas, I’d be frightened,” an evaluator from one other staff stated. “I don’t know the way they cease anyone. They misplaced their greatest run defenders. They’ve a bunch of front-seven gamers that may’t get off blocks and get knocked again.”

4. One of the crucial outstanding Rams victories in the course of the Sean McVay period got here on the 49ers’ expense. Right here’s the place my thoughts went.

The injury-depleted 49ers had been 6.5-point highway favorites in opposition to the even-more-injury-depleted Rams, who had misplaced 9 of the earlier 11 conferences (together with the meaningless 2023 regular-season finale) between the groups.

“McVay has no probability with out his entire offensive line, with out Puka Nacua, with out Cooper Kupp,” an exec from one other staff stated shortly earlier than kickoff.

Down 24-14 with 11:57 remaining, the Rams scored on their ultimate three drives, helped by a 38-yard punt return within the ultimate minute to arrange the successful discipline objective.

“I noticed a staff reply after a extremely humbling week final week.” pic.twitter.com/XuQ1XioUpw

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 23, 2024

The Rams must hold shopping for time to allow them to get wholesome.

What concerning the 49ers?

Their protection faltered badly in opposition to the Rams, as did their particular groups.

I went into the season questioning if 2024 could be when their star gamers on offense failed to remain on the sphere sufficient for the staff to maintain its elite edge. That’s nonetheless a priority, but when the protection and particular groups additionally falter, we’ll have each probability to find out whether or not quarterback Brock Purdy can carry extra of the burden.

Purdy carried loads of it Sunday however couldn’t fairly overcome the collapse round him. He related 11 instances for 175 yards and three touchdowns with receiver Jauan Jennings, whose 276 yards for the season are 11 greater than his whole in 13 video games a yr in the past.

It’ll be attention-grabbing to see how a lot Purdy’s supporting solid performs this season.

San Francisco’s huge 4 talent gamers — tight finish George Kittle, working again Christian McCaffrey, receiver Brandon Aiyuk and receiver Deebo Samuel — mixed to start out 61 video games (of a doable 64) final season earlier than the staff rested some starters in Week 18. They’ve already missed extra begins this season (5).

McCaffrey, sidelined by a calf harm, has but to play this season. Kittle missed a begin to a hamstring harm Sunday. Samuel missed Sunday with a calf pressure and will miss further time.

Maybe McCaffrey’s absence early within the season will depart him more energizing for a stretch run. However with the 49ers making so many playoff runs in recent times, and with their offensive gamers uncovered to elevated punishment by their bodily play model, there’s the potential for cumulative fatigue.

Over the past three seasons, counting playoffs, Aiyuk leads all NFL receivers with 42 begins (Samuel ranks nineteenth with 35). McCaffrey leads all working backs with 38 begins (teammate Kyle Juszczyk ranks third with 37). Kittle’s 39 begins rank second amongst tight ends.

5. Led by Aaron Rodgers, the Jets ended a 24-game streak of futility

Aaron Rodgers appeared and sounded extra like his former self within the New York Jets’ 24-3 domination of the New England Patriots on Thursday evening. Extra on that momentarily.

First, we should notice that the Jets over the previous two weeks snapped a 24-game streak of offensive futility. That’s what number of consecutive video games the staff had gone with out producing optimistic EPA on offense even as soon as, till barely stepping into the optimistic in opposition to Tennessee in Week 2, after which including an enormous exclamation level in opposition to the Patriots.

Rodgers can’t presumably admire simply how unhealthy the staff has been on offense, or for the way lengthy. It shouldn’t matter to him, both. However for individuals who have seen this staff’s offense wrestle like virtually no different, the chart beneath gives some perspective. It lays out the 24-game streak, bookended by higher performances, together with the final two with Rodgers within the lineup.
Since 2000, solely the 2017-19 Arizona Cardinals have put collectively an extended streak of unfavourable EPA video games within the common season, in accordance with TruMedia.

Past the numbers, which included Rodgers producing extra move EPA (17.9) than he had in all however 5 of his 134 begins over the previous decade, this recreation showcased among the aptitude that has lengthy distinguished his recreation.

There have been fall-away passes delivered with unset ft. There was the flipped throwing wrist befitting an NBA sharpshooter. There was even the acquainted Rodgers eye roll and pursed lips when the play-call arrived late, resulting in a timeout. Afterward, Rodgers delivered a press release that appeared laughable coming from a Jets quarterback, however not from Rodgers.

“If the expectation is successful, then we’re going to have a good time it, however we must always anticipate to win,” Rodgers stated. “The following step is anticipating to dominate.”

How about beating groups higher than the Titans and Patriots? The Jets have Denver, Minnesota and Buffalo subsequent on their schedule.

6. Two-minute drill: Nabers and the first-round rookies

Malik Nabers’ numbers Sunday — eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns — don’t adequately seize his contributions to the New York Giants’ 21-15 victory at Cleveland.

Snatching the ball from the Browns’ Martin Emerson Jr.? No downside.

This Nabers catch 😲

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/dlgfJSdBbr

— New York Giants (@Giants) September 22, 2024

Laying out in the long run zone for a landing? Simple.

YOU ALREADY KNOW!

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/Vg7lXDfYqp

— New York Giants (@Giants) September 22, 2024

Whereas rookie quarterbacks have struggled, seven first-round rookie move catchers are flourishing. Led by Nabers, and with Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas Jr. (Nabers’ teammate at LSU) not taking part in till Monday evening, vast receivers and tight ends from the 2024 first spherical have mixed for greater than 1,100 yards receiving. That’s essentially the most for a rookie first-round class in a season’s first three weeks since a minimum of 2000, per TruMedia.

• Raiders coach Antonio Pierce suggesting a few of his gamers made “enterprise choices” and that the staff would do the identical in response was … attention-grabbing.

Raiders coach Antonio Pierce after Sunday’s loss.

“I believe as the sport went on — I do not suppose it was the staff — I believe there was positively some people that made enterprise choices. And we’ll make enterprise choices going ahead, as properly.”pic.twitter.com/CPTinIi49J

— Terrible Saying (@awfulannouncing) September 23, 2024

Even when Pierce is right and a few gamers averted contact out of self-preservation, the Panthers jumped on the Raiders from the start, lengthy earlier than any enterprise choices would have been made. Have been the Raiders able to play?

• Two extra catastrophe performs for Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis — one a choose six, the opposite a sack fumble — didn’t anger coach Brian Callahan as a lot as earlier game-changing miscues angered him. That was as a result of the Titans’ 30-14 house loss to Inexperienced Bay was about far more than their second-year quarterback. The Packers dominated throughout the board.

Nonetheless, the unfavourable swing performs are including up by three weeks. Levis has had a hand in 5 performs dropping a minimum of 4.0 EPA — outcomes so unhealthy that they account for about 1.2 % of offensive performs throughout the league over the previous 5 seasons, per TruMedia.

The desk beneath stacks these performs chronologically. It additionally reveals how a lot EPA was misplaced, a complete of 31.23 in video games Tennessee misplaced by a mixed 30 factors. That features 12.5 EPA misplaced in a seven-point defeat to Chicago, 4.6 in a seven-point setback to the Jets and 14.2 within the 16-point loss to the Packers.

• The Denver Broncos needed to take pleasure in seeing rookie quarterback Bo Nix play a turnover-free recreation for the primary time in three begins, whereas finishing almost 70 % of his passes and speeding successfully, together with for a landing. The 26-7 victory at Tampa Bay was among the many upsets Sunday.

Coach Sean Payton picked up his 18th victory since Drew Brees’ retirement. This victory, like many of the earlier 17, match a sample: outsized contributions on protection/particular groups, to assist offset much less productive play from the offense.

The EPA breakdown for the Broncos fell this fashion: +0.2 on offense, +17.4 on protection and +1.4 on particular groups. It provides as much as a 19-point victory, with the protection and particular groups combining for 18.8 of the differential.

•The Athletic’s Austin Mock has his newest playoff projections for all 32 groups. The 4 3-0 groups’ postseason make charges: 95 % for Kansas Metropolis, 71 % for Seattle, 69 % for Pittsburgh and 65 % for Minnesota. The 49ers are at solely 59 %. That appears low.

(Photograph of Kevin O’Connell, proper, and Justin Jefferson: Stephen Maturen / Getty Pictures)